Diana Shnaider vs Leylah Fernandez
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Leylah Fernandez
Diana …: 39,9% Leylah …: 60,1%
¿Por qué Leylah Fernandez?
UTR 12,43 vs 12,53 (-0,23) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Diana … Leylah … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,80 2,00 55,6%
Gamdom 1,76 2,12 56,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,50 1,67 39,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Diana …: -12,7% Leylah …: +12,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Diana Shnaider
Ranking #22
UTR Rating 12,43 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/31 = 51,6%
Leylah Fernandez
Ranking #23
UTR Rating 12,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #20
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 28/43 = 65,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 1,0000
rank_ratio 1,0476
log_rank_ratio 0,0465
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 45,0000
best_rank_diff 2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -13,5034
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -12,4012
surface_matches_ratio 0,7209
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 51,6129
surface_wr_p2 65,1163
surface_wr_p1_stable 51,4286
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8298
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 43,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0323
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,4472
first_serve_won_diff -4,2000
second_serve_won_diff -1,7000
bp_saved_diff -1,5000
bp_converted_diff 2,1000
aces_per_match_diff -0,4186
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 38,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 8,4000
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 5,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8855
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8537
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4375
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 8,7110
serve_consistency_p2 9,7040
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,6282
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0151
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1522
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2300
utr_p1 0,5094
utr_p2 0,5365
utr_advantage -1,8481
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22737
API ID 15348456
Gamdom ID 590394
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22737,
    "api_id": 15348456,
    "gamdom_id": 590394,
    "player1": "Diana Shnaider",
    "player2": "Leylah Fernandez",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.76,
      "p2": 2.12
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.09
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3994,
    "prob_p2": 0.6006,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6006,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 22,
      "utr_singles": 12.43,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.61290322580645,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 23,
      "utr_singles": 12.53,
      "utr_ranking": 20,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.11627906976744,
      "wr_surface_wins": 28,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.43,
      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.53,
      "ranking": 20,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5094117647058823,
    "utr_p2": 0.5364705882352941,
    "utr_diff": -0.23000000000000043,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0476190476190477,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 38.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 45,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.499999999999993,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 7.9999999999999964,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 51.61290322580645,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.11627906976744,
    "utr_advantage": -1.8481317798312609,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.04652001563489291,
    "rank_advantage": 1,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -13.503375843960995,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.1000000000000014,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 43,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.447209302325575,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8854961832061069,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8536585365853658,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.41860465116279055,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.199999999999996,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.03225806451612903,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.711012660079474,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.703989787048705,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.6281772553849007,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.42857142857142,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.829787234042556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.6999999999999957,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7209302325581395,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 8.399999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.015129032258064501,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15216279069767447,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.401215805471132,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}