Diana Shnaider vs Leylah Fernandez
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 04:30
13 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Leylah Fernandez
Diana …: 39,9%
Leylah …: 60,1%
¿Por qué Leylah Fernandez?
UTR 12,43 vs 12,53
(-0,23)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Diana … | Leylah … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,80 | 2,00 | 55,6% |
| Gamdom | 1,76 | 2,12 | 56,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,50 | 1,67 | 39,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Diana …: -12,7%
Leylah …: +12,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Diana Shnaider
Ranking
#22
UTR Rating
12,43 Pro
UTR Ranking
#29
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/31 = 51,6%
Leylah Fernandez
Ranking
#23
UTR Rating
12,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#20
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
28/43 = 65,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0476 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0465 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 45,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -13,5034 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -12,4012 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7209 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 51,6129 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,1163 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 51,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,8298 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0323 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,4472 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,2000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,7000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,1000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,4186 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 8,4000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8855 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8537 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4375 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7500 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,7110 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,7040 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,6282 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0151 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1522 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5094 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5365 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,8481 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22737
API ID
15348456
Gamdom ID
590394
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22737,
"api_id": 15348456,
"gamdom_id": 590394,
"player1": "Diana Shnaider",
"player2": "Leylah Fernandez",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-13T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8,
"p2": 2.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.76,
"p2": 2.12
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 2.09
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3994,
"prob_p2": 0.6006,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6006,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 22,
"utr_singles": 12.43,
"utr_ranking": 29,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.61290322580645,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 23,
"utr_singles": 12.53,
"utr_ranking": 20,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.11627906976744,
"wr_surface_wins": 28,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 29,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.53,
"ranking": 20,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5364705882352941,
"utr_diff": -0.23000000000000043,
"rank_ratio": 1.0476190476190477,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 38.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 45,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.499999999999993,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 7.9999999999999964,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 51.61290322580645,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.11627906976744,
"utr_advantage": -1.8481317798312609,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.04652001563489291,
"rank_advantage": 1,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -13.503375843960995,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.1000000000000014,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 43,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.447209302325575,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8854961832061069,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8536585365853658,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.41860465116279055,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.199999999999996,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.03225806451612903,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.711012660079474,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.703989787048705,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.6281772553849007,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.42857142857142,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.829787234042556,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.6999999999999957,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7209302325581395,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 8.399999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 4,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.015129032258064501,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15216279069767447,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.401215805471132,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}