Jelena Ostapenko vs Tereza Valentová
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 08:15
13 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tereza Valentová
Jelena …: 31,4%
Tereza …: 68,6%
¿Por qué Tereza Valentová?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jelena … | Tereza … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,25 | 1,37 | 30,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,19 | 1,46 | 31,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jelena …: -0,4%
Tereza …: +0,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jelena Ostapenko
Ranking
#24
UTR Rating
12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
8/21 = 38,1%
Tereza Valentová
Ranking
#54
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
13/16 = 81,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 37,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,6087 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,9589 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 765,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 50,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -43,1548 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -21,5833 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3125 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 38,0952 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 81,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 75,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 21,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2381 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1,0998 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,4000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,4000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -10,4000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,4000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,8601 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -72,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -50,9000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7374 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 21,4278 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,4320 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -41,3790 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1560 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,3495 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -43,1548 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4824 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4824 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22738
API ID
15348452
Gamdom ID
590397
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22738,
"api_id": 15348452,
"gamdom_id": 590397,
"player1": "Jelena Ostapenko",
"player2": "Tereza Valentov\u00e1",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-13T04:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.25,
"p2": 1.37
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.98,
"p2": 1.18
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3139,
"prob_p2": 0.6861,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6861,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 24,
"utr_singles": 12.1,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 38.095238095238095,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 21,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 54,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 81.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.1,
"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.48235294117647054,
"utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 2.608695652173913,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 0.0,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": 765,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -10.400000000000006,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -72.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7,
"p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 38.095238095238095,
"surface_wr_p2": 81.25,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 50,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.958850346292951,
"rank_advantage": 37,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -43.154761904761905,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.399999999999999,
"p1_surface_matches": 21,
"p2_surface_matches": 16,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.0997619047618983,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7373737373737373,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.8601190476190474,
"combined_confidence": 0.6166666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -7,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.3999999999999915,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.23809523809523808,
"serve_consistency_p1": 21.427848306191347,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.43198204392275,
"surface_rank_synergy": -41.3789583965708,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 75.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.399999999999999,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3125,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -50.90000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -43.154761904761905,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.156047619047619,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.3494999999999999,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -21.583333333333336,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}