Jelena Ostapenko vs Tereza Valentová
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tereza Valentová
Jelena …: 31,4% Tereza …: 68,6%
¿Por qué Tereza Valentová?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jelena … Tereza … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
Gamdom 3,25 1,37 30,8%
IA Fair Odds 3,19 1,46 31,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Jelena …: -0,4% Tereza …: +0,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jelena Ostapenko
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 8/21 = 38,1%
Tereza Valentová
Ranking #54
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 13/16 = 81,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 37,0000
rank_ratio 2,6087
log_rank_ratio 0,9589
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 765,0000
best_rank_diff 50,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -43,1548
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -21,5833
surface_matches_ratio 1,3125
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 38,0952
surface_wr_p2 81,2500
surface_wr_p1_stable 40,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 75,0000
p1_surface_matches 21,0000
p2_surface_matches 16,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2381
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7000
p2_confidence 0,5333
combined_confidence 0,6167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,0998
first_serve_won_diff -2,4000
second_serve_won_diff -5,4000
bp_saved_diff -10,4000
bp_converted_diff -4,4000
aces_per_match_diff 0,8601
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff -72,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -50,9000
current_streak_diff -7,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7374
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7273
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 21,4278
serve_consistency_p2 8,4320
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -41,3790
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1560
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,3495
elite_surface_amplifier -43,1548
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,4824
utr_p2 0,4824
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22738
API ID 15348452
Gamdom ID 590397
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22738,
    "api_id": 15348452,
    "gamdom_id": 590397,
    "player1": "Jelena Ostapenko",
    "player2": "Tereza Valentov\u00e1",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T04:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.25,
      "p2": 1.37
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.98,
      "p2": 1.18
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3139,
    "prob_p2": 0.6861,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6861,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 12.1,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.095238095238095,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 21,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 54,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 81.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.1,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.48235294117647054,
    "utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 2.608695652173913,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": 765,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -10.400000000000006,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -72.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 38.095238095238095,
    "surface_wr_p2": 81.25,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 50,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.958850346292951,
    "rank_advantage": 37,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -43.154761904761905,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.399999999999999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 21,
    "p2_surface_matches": 16,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.0997619047618983,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7373737373737373,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8601190476190474,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -7,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.3999999999999915,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.23809523809523808,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 21.427848306191347,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.43198204392275,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -41.3789583965708,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 75.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.399999999999999,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -50.90000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -43.154761904761905,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 6,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.156047619047619,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.3494999999999999,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -21.583333333333336,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}