Sorana Cirstea vs Dayana Yastremska
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 09:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sorana Cirstea
Sorana …: 56,7% Dayana …: 43,3%
¿Por qué Sorana Cirstea?
UTR 12,48 vs 12,26 (+0,11) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sorana … Dayana … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 1,73 1,92 57,8%
IA Fair Odds 1,76 2,31 56,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Sorana …: +6,7% Dayana …: -6,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sorana Cirstea
Ranking #41
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 26/41 = 63,4%
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking #28
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #51
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -14,0000
rank_ratio 0,6585
log_rank_ratio -0,4177
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -361,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 8,2422
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 7,5488
surface_matches_ratio 1,4138
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 63,4146
surface_wr_p2 55,1724
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,2222
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5455
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2683
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0974
first_serve_won_diff 4,4740
second_serve_won_diff -5,8256
bp_saved_diff -3,7897
bp_converted_diff 1,4789
aces_per_match_diff -0,1960
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 19,2000
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9589
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8083
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8333
serve_consistency_p1 13,2757
serve_consistency_p2 13,5224
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -3,4431
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1481
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0377
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1100
utr_p1 0,5188
utr_p2 0,5059
utr_advantage 0,8903
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22740
API ID 15348455
Gamdom ID 590395
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22740,
    "api_id": 15348455,
    "gamdom_id": 590395,
    "player1": "Sorana Cirstea",
    "player2": "Dayana Yastremska",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T05:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 1.92
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.78,
      "p2": 2.0
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5673,
    "prob_p2": 0.4327,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5673,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 41,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.41463414634146,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 28,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 51,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 51,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5188235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5058823529411766,
    "utr_diff": 0.10999999999999943,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6585365853658537,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": -361,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.789655172413795,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 63.41463414634146,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
    "utr_advantage": 0.8903278025091009,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.41773520069997866,
    "rank_advantage": -14,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 8.242220353238018,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.478889823381003,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.09740958788897558,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.958904109589041,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8083333333333333,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.1959629941126999,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.474011774600491,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2682926829268293,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.275727948168935,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.52235098291406,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -3.4430655734733326,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.22222222222222,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.825567703952906,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4137931034482758,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 19.200000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14814634146341465,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03772413793103446,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 7.548821548821555,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}