Sorana Cirstea vs Dayana Yastremska
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 09:10
13 Ene 2026, 09:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sorana Cirstea
Sorana …: 56,7%
Dayana …: 43,3%
¿Por qué Sorana Cirstea?
UTR 12,48 vs 12,26
(+0,11)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sorana … | Dayana … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,91 | 1,91 | 52,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,73 | 1,92 | 57,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,76 | 2,31 | 56,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sorana …: +6,7%
Dayana …: -6,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sorana Cirstea
Ranking
#41
UTR Rating
12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
26/41 = 63,4%
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking
#28
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#51
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -14,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6585 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,4177 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -361,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 8,2422 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 7,5488 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4138 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 63,4146 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,2222 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,5455 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2683 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0974 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,4740 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,8256 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,7897 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,4789 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,1960 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 19,2000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9589 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8083 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,2757 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,5224 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -3,4431 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1481 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0377 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5059 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,8903 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22740
API ID
15348455
Gamdom ID
590395
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
cancelled
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22740,
"api_id": 15348455,
"gamdom_id": 590395,
"player1": "Sorana Cirstea",
"player2": "Dayana Yastremska",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-13T05:10:00+00:00",
"status": "cancelled"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.9100000000000001,
"p2": 1.9100000000000001
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 1.92
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.78,
"p2": 2.0
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5673,
"prob_p2": 0.4327,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5673,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 41,
"utr_singles": 12.48,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.41463414634146,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 28,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 51,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.48,
"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.26,
"ranking": 51,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5058823529411766,
"utr_diff": 0.10999999999999943,
"rank_ratio": 0.6585365853658537,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -361,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.789655172413795,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 63.41463414634146,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
"utr_advantage": 0.8903278025091009,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.41773520069997866,
"rank_advantage": -14,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 8.242220353238018,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.478889823381003,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.09740958788897558,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.958904109589041,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8083333333333333,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.1959629941126999,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.474011774600491,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2682926829268293,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.275727948168935,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.52235098291406,
"surface_rank_synergy": -3.4430655734733326,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.22222222222222,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.825567703952906,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4137931034482758,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 19.200000000000003,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14814634146341465,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03772413793103446,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 7.548821548821555,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}