Stefan Palosi vs Ezequiel Monferrer
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Qualification Final
12 Ene 2026, 17:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefan Palosi
Stefan …: 76,1% Ezequiel …: 23,9%
¿Por qué Stefan Palosi?
UTR 13,73 vs 12,78 (+0,98) — Niveles similares
Stefan …
Sin datos
Ezequiel …
W23-L26
47% WR
vs UTR 12,9
L1
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Stefan … Ezequiel … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,00 67,00 99,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,31 4,18 76,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Stefan …: -22,4% Ezequiel …: +22,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefan Palosi
Ranking #484
UTR Rating 13,73 Pro
UTR Ranking #535
Forma L5 67% (3p)
Forma L10 67% (3p)
WR Clay 4/7 = 57,1%
Ezequiel Monferrer
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,78 Pro
UTR Ranking #1309
Forma L5 33% (3p)
Forma L10 33% (3p)
WR Clay 1/8 = 12,5%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Stefan Palosi
Sin datos UTR v4
Ezequiel Monferrer
Record 2025 23W - 26L (47%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 12,9
Últimos 5:
L W W W L
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 44,6429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 13,1299
surface_matches_ratio 0,8750
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 57,1429
surface_wr_p2 12,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,3247
surface_wr_p2_stable 22,5000
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 8,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 0,4067
combined_confidence 0,4000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 8,5414
first_serve_won_diff 4,2000
second_serve_won_diff 12,9000
bp_saved_diff 8,6000
bp_converted_diff -8,9000
aces_per_match_diff 1,2857
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,3333
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 66,6667
momentum_p2 44,4444
momentum_diff 22,2222
weighted_momentum_diff 16,6667
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 13,8520
serve_consistency_p2 5,1470
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0714
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3750
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,9800
utr_p1 0,6706
utr_p2 0,5553
utr_advantage 7,4186
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22742
API ID 15349443
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22742,
    "api_id": 15349443,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Stefan Palosi",
    "player2": "Ezequiel Monferrer",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-12T13:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.0013333333333334,
      "p2": 67.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.13,
      "p2": 5.3
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7608,
    "prob_p2": 0.2392,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7608,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 484,
      "utr_singles": 13.73,
      "utr_ranking": 535,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.78,
      "utr_ranking": 1309,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 23,
      "utr_v4_losses": 26,
      "utr_v4_wr": 46.93877551020408,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.85,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.0,
          "opponent_name": "Nicolas Zanellato"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.54,
          "opponent_name": "Breno Braga"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.89,
          "opponent_name": "Rafael Tosetto"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.73,
          "opponent_name": "Pedro Sakamoto"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.03,
          "opponent_name": "Eduardo Ribeiro"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:19.548557+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 12.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 8,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.73,
      "ranking": 535,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.78,
      "ranking": 1309,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6705882352941176,
    "utr_p2": 0.5552941176470589,
    "utr_diff": 0.9799999999999986,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 66.66666666666667,
    "momentum_p2": 44.44444444444445,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 8.600000000000001,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 22.22222222222222,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4066666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2": 12.5,
    "utr_advantage": 7.418622255866756,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 44.64285714285714,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.899999999999999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 8,
    "serve_quality_diff": 8.541428571428568,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.2857142857142856,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.199999999999996,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.852017172858531,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.146968061097522,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 22.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 12.899999999999999,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 16.666666666666664,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0714285714285714,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.375,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.129870129870127,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}