Valerio Aboian vs Juan Bautista Otegui
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Qualification Final
12 Ene 2026, 19:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Valerio Aboian
Valerio …: 69,1% Juan …: 30,9%
¿Por qué Valerio Aboian?
UTR 13,68 vs 12,95 (+0,76) — Niveles similares
Valerio …
W30-L19
61% WR
vs UTR 13,3
W1
Juan …
W34-L30
53% WR
vs UTR 12,7
L3
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Valerio … Juan … Prob Impl. P1
IA Fair Odds 1,45 3,23 69,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Valerio Aboian
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,68 Pro
UTR Ranking #569
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Clay 10/18 = 55,6%
Juan Bautista Otegui
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,95 Pro
UTR Ranking #1143
Forma L5 100% (1p)
Forma L10 100% (1p)
WR Clay 0/1 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Valerio Aboian
Record 2025 30W - 19L (61%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 13,3
Últimos 5:
W L W W L
Juan Bautista Otegui
Record 2025 34W - 30L (53%)
Racha 3L
UTR Oponentes 12,7
Últimos 5:
L L L W W
Análisis Momentum
Valerio Aboian ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 13,3 vs 12,7).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 55,5556
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 23,0824
surface_matches_ratio 18,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -3,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,5556
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 4,0000
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 1,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1111
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 0,3133
combined_confidence 0,4567
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,7522
first_serve_won_diff -8,4000
second_serve_won_diff -1,1000
bp_saved_diff 12,0000
bp_converted_diff 9,1000
aces_per_match_diff -0,6111
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,5000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 48,9796
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -51,0204
weighted_momentum_diff -37,8061
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 2,5118
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0556
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,7600
utr_p1 0,6694
utr_p2 0,5800
utr_advantage 5,7100
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22750
API ID 15351269
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22750,
    "api_id": 15351269,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Valerio Aboian",
    "player2": "Juan Bautista Otegui",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-12T15:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.37,
      "p2": 2.98
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6908,
    "prob_p2": 0.3092,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6908,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.68,
      "utr_ranking": 569,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 30,
      "utr_v4_losses": 19,
      "utr_v4_wr": 61.224489795918366,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.32,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.43,
          "opponent_name": "Rocco Valente"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.77,
          "opponent_name": "Thiago Cigarran"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.36,
          "opponent_name": "Lucca Pinto"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.16,
          "opponent_name": "Tadeo Meneo"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.94,
          "opponent_name": "Samuel Heredia"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:56.009638+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.95,
      "utr_ranking": 1143,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 34,
      "utr_v4_losses": 30,
      "utr_v4_wr": 53.125,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 3,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.69,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.6,
          "opponent_name": "Filippo Romano"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.14,
          "opponent_name": "Felix Gill"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.48,
          "opponent_name": "Giuseppe La Vela"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Stefan Kostic"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.92,
          "opponent_name": "Tomas Farjat"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:59.483033+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.68,
      "ranking": 569,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.95,
      "ranking": 1143,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6694117647058823,
    "utr_p2": 0.58,
    "utr_diff": 0.7599999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 48.9795918367347,
    "momentum_p2": 100.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 12.0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.5,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -51.0204081632653,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 5.70999248685199,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 55.55555555555556,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.100000000000001,
    "p1_surface_matches": 18,
    "p2_surface_matches": 1,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.752222222222223,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.6111111111111107,
    "combined_confidence": 0.45666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -8.400000000000006,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1111111111111111,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.511845287589527,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 4.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.1000000000000014,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 18.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -37.80612244897959,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.05555555555555558,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 23.08242424242424,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}