Roberto Carballés Baena vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Roberto Carballés Baena
Roberto …: 80,4%
Gilles …: 19,6%
¿Por qué Roberto Carballés Baena?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Roberto … | Gilles … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,44 | 2,63 | 69,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,24 | 5,11 | 80,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Roberto …: +15,9%
Gilles …: -15,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Roberto Carballés Baena
Ranking
#147
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
7/18 = 38,9%
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Ranking
#208
UTR Rating
14,10 Pro
UTR Ranking
#334
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (5p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 77,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,6016 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4710 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 186,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 152,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 38,8889 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -13,0909 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 18,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 38,8889 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 40,9091 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 70,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 18,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2222 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 57,4650 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 67,7611 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 49,3556 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 61,1444 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 40,0556 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,3889 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -23,3700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,2366 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,8209 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,1431 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 18,3159 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1881 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,4230 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 38,8889 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7129 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7129 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22865
API ID
15352511
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 2
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22865,
"api_id": 15352511,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Roberto Carball\u00e9s Baena",
"player2": "Gilles Arnaud Bailly",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 2",
"date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.4444444444444444,
"p2": 2.625
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.21
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8042,
"prob_p2": 0.1958,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8042,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 147,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 38.88888888888889,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 18,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 208,
"utr_singles": 14.1,
"utr_ranking": 334,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.1,
"ranking": 334,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7129411764705883,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.6015625,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": 186,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 61.14444444444445,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -20.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.6,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 38.88888888888889,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 152,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.470979715218791,
"rank_advantage": 77,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 38.88888888888889,
"bp_converted_diff": 40.05555555555555,
"p1_surface_matches": 18,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 57.46500000000001,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.2365591397849462,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.388888888888889,
"combined_confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 67.76111111111112,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.2222222222222222,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.820858600610482,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.143054752247286,
"surface_rank_synergy": 18.3158778140641,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.909090909090914,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 70.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 49.35555555555556,
"surface_matches_ratio": 18.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -23.37000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 38.88888888888889,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.188111111111111,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.42300000000000004,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.090909090909088,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}