Roberto Carballés Baena vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Roberto Carballés Baena
Roberto …: 80,4% Gilles …: 19,6%
¿Por qué Roberto Carballés Baena?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Roberto … Gilles … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,63 69,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,24 5,11 80,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Roberto …: +15,9% Gilles …: -15,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Roberto Carballés Baena
Ranking #147
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 7/18 = 38,9%
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Ranking #208
UTR Rating 14,10 Pro
UTR Ranking #334
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (5p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 77,0000
rank_ratio 1,6016
log_rank_ratio 0,4710
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 186,0000
best_rank_diff 152,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 38,8889
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,0909
surface_matches_ratio 18,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 38,8889
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 40,9091
surface_wr_p2_stable 70,0000
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2222
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,4500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 57,4650
first_serve_won_diff 67,7611
second_serve_won_diff 49,3556
bp_saved_diff 61,1444
bp_converted_diff 40,0556
aces_per_match_diff 4,3889
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -23,3700
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,2366
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 13,8209
serve_consistency_p2 11,1431
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 18,3159
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1881
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,4230
elite_surface_amplifier 38,8889
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,7129
utr_p2 0,7129
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22865
API ID 15352511
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22865,
    "api_id": 15352511,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Roberto Carball\u00e9s Baena",
    "player2": "Gilles Arnaud Bailly",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4444444444444444,
      "p2": 2.625
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.21
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8042,
    "prob_p2": 0.1958,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8042,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 147,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.88888888888889,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 208,
      "utr_singles": 14.1,
      "utr_ranking": 334,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.1,
      "ranking": 334,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7129411764705883,
    "utr_p2": 0.7129411764705883,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.6015625,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 186,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 61.14444444444445,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 38.88888888888889,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
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    "best_rank_diff": 152,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.470979715218791,
    "rank_advantage": 77,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 38.88888888888889,
    "bp_converted_diff": 40.05555555555555,
    "p1_surface_matches": 18,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 57.46500000000001,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.2365591397849462,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.388888888888889,
    "combined_confidence": 0.44999999999999996,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 67.76111111111112,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.2222222222222222,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.820858600610482,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.143054752247286,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 18.3158778140641,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.909090909090914,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 70.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 49.35555555555556,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 18.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -23.37000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 38.88888888888889,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.188111111111111,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.42300000000000004,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.090909090909088,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}