Lucia Bronzetti vs Mary Stoiana
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lucia Bronzetti
Lucia …: 71,3%
Mary …: 28,7%
¿Por qué Lucia Bronzetti?
UTR 11,56 vs 11,77
(-0,29)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lucia … | Mary … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,83 | 1,83 | 54,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,99 | 1,86 | 50,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,40 | 3,49 | 71,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lucia …: +21,3%
Mary …: -21,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lucia Bronzetti
Ranking
#107
UTR Rating
11,56 Pro
UTR Ranking
#227
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
13/30 = 43,3%
Mary Stoiana
Ranking
#222
UTR Rating
11,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#173
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
57% (7p)
WR Hard
0/1 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 115,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,0849 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,7347 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 401,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 177,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 43,3333 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 26,3439 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 30,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 43,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 44,1176 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 4,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 1,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3133 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6567 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 8,5297 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,3633 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,8267 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,7600 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -54,8300 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,8000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -19,9810 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5972 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5556 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,9779 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,3595 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 31,8380 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1817 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,3850 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 43,3333 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4082 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4424 | |
| utr_advantage | -2,4968 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22868
API ID
15352541
Gamdom ID
591831
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 2
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22868,
"api_id": 15352541,
"gamdom_id": 591831,
"player1": "Lucia Bronzetti",
"player2": "Mary Stoiana",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 2",
"date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8333333333333335,
"p2": 1.8333333333333335
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.99,
"p2": 1.86
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.96,
"p2": 1.79
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7134,
"prob_p2": 0.2866,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7134,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 107,
"utr_singles": 11.56,
"utr_ranking": 227,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 43.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 222,
"utr_singles": 11.77,
"utr_ranking": 173,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 1,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 57.14285714285714,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 7
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.56,
"ranking": 227,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.77,
"ranking": 173,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.40823529411764714,
"utr_p2": 0.44235294117647056,
"utr_diff": -0.28999999999999915,
"rank_ratio": 2.0849056603773586,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": 401,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.760000000000005,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -22.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 43.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -2.496771416272055,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 177,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.7347236074056858,
"rank_advantage": 115,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5555555555555556,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 43.333333333333336,
"bp_converted_diff": -54.830000000000005,
"p1_surface_matches": 30,
"p2_surface_matches": 1,
"serve_quality_diff": 8.529666666666664,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5972222222222222,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.8,
"combined_confidence": 0.6566666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.363333333333323,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.13333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.97793825506923,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.3594549571595,
"surface_rank_synergy": 31.83802298757972,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.11764705882353,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 4.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.8266666666666751,
"surface_matches_ratio": 30.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -19.981,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 43.333333333333336,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.18166666666666664,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.385,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 26.343921568627447,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}