Lucia Bronzetti vs Mary Stoiana
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lucia Bronzetti
Lucia …: 71,3% Mary …: 28,7%
¿Por qué Lucia Bronzetti?
UTR 11,56 vs 11,77 (-0,29) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lucia … Mary … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,83 1,83 54,5%
Gamdom 1,99 1,86 50,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,40 3,49 71,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Lucia …: +21,3% Mary …: -21,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lucia Bronzetti
Ranking #107
UTR Rating 11,56 Pro
UTR Ranking #227
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 13/30 = 43,3%
Mary Stoiana
Ranking #222
UTR Rating 11,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #173
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 57% (7p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 115,0000
rank_ratio 2,0849
log_rank_ratio 0,7347
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 401,0000
best_rank_diff 177,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 43,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 26,3439
surface_matches_ratio 30,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 43,3333
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 44,1176
surface_wr_p2_stable 4,0000
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 1,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1333
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,3133
combined_confidence 0,6567
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 8,5297
first_serve_won_diff 5,3633
second_serve_won_diff 0,8267
bp_saved_diff 3,7600
bp_converted_diff -54,8300
aces_per_match_diff 2,8000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff -22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -19,9810
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5972
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5556
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 9,9779
serve_consistency_p2 13,3595
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 31,8380
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1817
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3850
elite_surface_amplifier 43,3333
UTR
utr_diff -0,2900
utr_p1 0,4082
utr_p2 0,4424
utr_advantage -2,4968
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22868
API ID 15352541
Gamdom ID 591831
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22868,
    "api_id": 15352541,
    "gamdom_id": 591831,
    "player1": "Lucia Bronzetti",
    "player2": "Mary Stoiana",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8333333333333335,
      "p2": 1.8333333333333335
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.99,
      "p2": 1.86
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.96,
      "p2": 1.79
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7134,
    "prob_p2": 0.2866,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7134,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 107,
      "utr_singles": 11.56,
      "utr_ranking": 227,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 43.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 222,
      "utr_singles": 11.77,
      "utr_ranking": 173,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 57.14285714285714,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.56,
      "ranking": 227,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.77,
      "ranking": 173,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.40823529411764714,
    "utr_p2": 0.44235294117647056,
    "utr_diff": -0.28999999999999915,
    "rank_ratio": 2.0849056603773586,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": 401,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.760000000000005,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -22.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 43.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -2.496771416272055,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 177,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.7347236074056858,
    "rank_advantage": 115,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5555555555555556,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 43.333333333333336,
    "bp_converted_diff": -54.830000000000005,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 1,
    "serve_quality_diff": 8.529666666666664,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5972222222222222,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.8,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6566666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.363333333333323,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.13333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.97793825506923,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.3594549571595,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 31.83802298757972,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.11764705882353,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 4.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.8266666666666751,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 30.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -19.981,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 43.333333333333336,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.18166666666666664,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.385,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 26.343921568627447,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}