Zeynep Sonmez vs Julia Riera
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Julia Riera
Zeynep …: 37,7% Julia …: 62,3%
¿Por qué Julia Riera?
UTR 12,11 vs 11,76 (+0,19) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Zeynep … Julia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,29 3,50 77,8%
Gamdom 1,31 3,60 76,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,65 1,61 37,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Zeynep …: -35,4% Julia …: +35,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Zeynep Sonmez
Ranking #112
UTR Rating 12,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #76
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/33 = 48,5%
Julia Riera
Ranking #181
UTR Rating 11,76 Pro
UTR Ranking #170
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 5/7 = 71,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 68,0000
rank_ratio 1,6071
log_rank_ratio 0,4745
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 307,0000
best_rank_diff 24,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -22,9437
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -10,0030
surface_matches_ratio 4,7143
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,4848
surface_wr_p2 71,4286
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,6486
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,0070
p1_surface_matches 33,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0303
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,6967
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,7582
first_serve_won_diff -4,9494
second_serve_won_diff 6,0390
bp_saved_diff 8,2372
bp_converted_diff -11,2766
aces_per_match_diff -3,0476
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,3590
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6019
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 4,8443
serve_consistency_p2 13,2403
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -10,8858
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0832
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2823
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1900
utr_p1 0,4659
utr_p2 0,4435
utr_advantage 1,6013
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22873
API ID 15352526
Gamdom ID 591817
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22873,
    "api_id": 15352526,
    "gamdom_id": 591817,
    "player1": "Zeynep Sonmez",
    "player2": "Julia Riera",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2857142857142856,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.41
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3771,
    "prob_p2": 0.6229,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6229,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 112,
      "utr_singles": 12.11,
      "utr_ranking": 76,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 181,
      "utr_singles": 11.76,
      "utr_ranking": 170,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 71.42857142857143,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.11,
      "ranking": 76,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.76,
      "ranking": 170,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.44352941176470584,
    "utr_diff": 0.19000000000000128,
    "rank_ratio": 1.6071428571428572,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 307,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 8.237229437229438,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 20.000000000000007,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
    "surface_wr_p2": 71.42857142857143,
    "utr_advantage": 1.6013485040033821,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 24,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.4744579795951159,
    "rank_advantage": 68,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -22.943722943722946,
    "bp_converted_diff": -11.276623376623377,
    "p1_surface_matches": 33,
    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.758225108225112,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6018518518518519,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.047619047619048,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6966666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.949350649350642,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.844261141324724,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.240324352458279,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -10.885832432268893,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.006993006993,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.038961038961034,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 4.714285714285714,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 14.359000000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0831515151515152,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28228571428571436,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.002979902979895,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}