Zeynep Sonmez vs Julia Riera
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Julia Riera
Zeynep …: 37,7%
Julia …: 62,3%
¿Por qué Julia Riera?
UTR 12,11 vs 11,76
(+0,19)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Zeynep … | Julia … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,29 | 3,50 | 77,8% |
| Gamdom | 1,31 | 3,60 | 76,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,65 | 1,61 | 37,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Zeynep …: -35,4%
Julia …: +35,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Zeynep Sonmez
Ranking
#112
UTR Rating
12,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#76
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/33 = 48,5%
Julia Riera
Ranking
#181
UTR Rating
11,76 Pro
UTR Ranking
#170
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
5/7 = 71,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 68,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,6071 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4745 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 307,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 24,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -22,9437 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -10,0030 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 4,7143 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,4848 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 71,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,6486 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,0070 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0303 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6967 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,7582 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,9494 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 6,0390 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,2372 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -11,2766 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,0476 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 14,3590 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6019 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,8443 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,2403 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -10,8858 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0832 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2823 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4659 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4435 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,6013 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22873
API ID
15352526
Gamdom ID
591817
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 2
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22873,
"api_id": 15352526,
"gamdom_id": 591817,
"player1": "Zeynep Sonmez",
"player2": "Julia Riera",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 2",
"date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2857142857142856,
"p2": 3.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.31,
"p2": 3.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.41
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3771,
"prob_p2": 0.6229,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6229,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 112,
"utr_singles": 12.11,
"utr_ranking": 76,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 181,
"utr_singles": 11.76,
"utr_ranking": 170,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 71.42857142857143,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 76,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 170,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.44352941176470584,
"utr_diff": 0.19000000000000128,
"rank_ratio": 1.6071428571428572,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
"momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 307,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.237229437229438,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 20.000000000000007,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
"surface_wr_p2": 71.42857142857143,
"utr_advantage": 1.6013485040033821,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 24,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.4744579795951159,
"rank_advantage": 68,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -22.943722943722946,
"bp_converted_diff": -11.276623376623377,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 7,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.758225108225112,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6018518518518519,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.047619047619048,
"combined_confidence": 0.6966666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.949350649350642,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.844261141324724,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.240324352458279,
"surface_rank_synergy": -10.885832432268893,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.006993006993,
"second_serve_won_diff": 6.038961038961034,
"surface_matches_ratio": 4.714285714285714,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 14.359000000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0831515151515152,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28228571428571436,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.002979902979895,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}