Jacob Fearnley vs Quentin Halys
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 06:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jacob Fearnley
Jacob …: 57,6% Quentin …: 42,4%
¿Por qué Jacob Fearnley?
UTR 15,30 vs 14,75 (+0,68) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jacob … Quentin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,57 42,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,74 2,36 57,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Jacob …: +17,9% Quentin …: -17,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jacob Fearnley
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Quentin Halys
Ranking #83
UTR Rating 14,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #120
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/33 = 39,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 17,0000
rank_ratio 1,2297
log_rank_ratio 0,2068
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 83,0000
best_rank_diff -3,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 16,8561
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 15,0150
surface_matches_ratio 0,9697
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 56,2500
surface_wr_p2 39,3939
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,5556
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,5405
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1250
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -14,9583
first_serve_won_diff -7,5103
second_serve_won_diff 4,7207
bp_saved_diff 4,6830
bp_converted_diff 0,6765
aces_per_match_diff -6,3097
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -48,1740
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8867
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9620
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6875
serve_consistency_p1 6,4023
serve_consistency_p2 7,1687
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,4857
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0455
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0891
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,6800
utr_p1 0,8765
utr_p2 0,7965
utr_advantage 4,5003
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22876
API ID 15352643
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22876,
    "api_id": 15352643,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Jacob Fearnley",
    "player2": "Quentin Halys",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T02:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.38,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.63
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5762,
    "prob_p2": 0.4238,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5762,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 83,
      "utr_singles": 14.75,
      "utr_ranking": 120,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 39.39393939393939,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 120,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.796470588235294,
    "utr_diff": 0.6799999999999997,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 83,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.6829545454545425,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": -50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 56.25,
    "surface_wr_p2": 39.39393939393939,
    "utr_advantage": 4.500330906684313,
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    "rank_advantage": 17,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6875,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 16.85606060606061,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.6765151515151473,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": -14.958257575757571,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8866995073891626,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9619565217391305,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -6.309659090909092,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.51032196969696,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.4023316053072525,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.168692743207822,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.485739163793287,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.54054054054054,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.720738636363642,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9696969696969697,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -48.174,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.045499999999999985,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08906060606060606,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 15.015015015015017,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}