Reilly Opelka vs Tommy Paul
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 07:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Reilly …: 23,6% Tommy …: 76,4%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,63 (-0,61) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Reilly … Tommy … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,67 45,5%
IA Fair Odds 4,24 1,31 23,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Reilly …: -19,6% Tommy …: +19,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking #63
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/35 = 60,0%
Tommy Paul
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 16/23 = 69,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -40,0000
rank_ratio 0,3333
log_rank_ratio -1,0986
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1189,0000
best_rank_diff -9,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,5652
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,7949
surface_matches_ratio 1,5217
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 69,5652
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,9744
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 18,1313
first_serve_won_diff 4,1925
second_serve_won_diff -0,2311
bp_saved_diff 13,6944
bp_converted_diff -9,5596
aces_per_match_diff 8,0522
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 27,0260
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 7,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0341
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1093
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4167
serve_consistency_p1 6,2230
serve_consistency_p2 5,0070
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 10,5085
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1400
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1557
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6100
utr_p1 0,8412
utr_p2 0,9129
utr_advantage -3,9469
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22883
API ID 15327344
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22883,
    "api_id": 15327344,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Reilly Opelka",
    "player2": "Tommy Paul",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-14T03:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.67
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.41,
      "p2": 1.55
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2359,
    "prob_p2": 0.7641,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7641,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 63,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 15.63,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
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      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
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  },
  "utr": {
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    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
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  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_diff": -0.6099999999999994,
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    "h2h_matches": 1,
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    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -1189,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 13.694409937888196,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
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    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
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    "bp_converted_diff": -9.559627329192548,
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    "serve_quality_diff": 18.131304347826088,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1093247588424437,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 8.052173913043479,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.192546583850927,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.222961776747761,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.0069918599754395,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 10.508465369868873,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.23105590062112213,
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    "days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
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    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.794871794871783,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
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  "feature_importance": {}
}