Reilly Opelka vs Tommy Paul
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 07:15
14 Ene 2026, 07:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Reilly …: 23,6%
Tommy …: 76,4%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,63
(-0,61)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Reilly … | Tommy … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,67 | 45,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,24 | 1,31 | 23,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Reilly …: -19,6%
Tommy …: +19,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking
#63
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
21/35 = 60,0%
Tommy Paul
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking
#15
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
16/23 = 69,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -40,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3333 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,0986 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1189,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -9,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,5652 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,7949 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5217 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 69,5652 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,9744 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66,6667 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 18,1313 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,1925 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,2311 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 13,6944 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -9,5596 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 8,0522 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 32,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 27,0260 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0341 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1093 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4167 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,2230 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,0070 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 10,5085 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1400 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1557 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,6100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9129 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,9469 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22883
API ID
15327344
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
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"match": {
"id": 22883,
"api_id": 15327344,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Reilly Opelka",
"player2": "Tommy Paul",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-14T03:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.67
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.41,
"p2": 1.55
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2359,
"prob_p2": 0.7641,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7641,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 15.63,
"utr_ranking": 15,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
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"ranking": 79,
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},
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"h2h_matches": 1,
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"points_diff": -1189,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 13.694409937888196,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
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"momentum_diff": 32.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
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"utr_advantage": -3.9469427369783205,
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"best_rank_diff": -9,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.0986122886681098,
"rank_advantage": -40,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -9.565217391304344,
"bp_converted_diff": -9.559627329192548,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": 18.131304347826088,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1093247588424437,
"aces_per_match_diff": 8.052173913043479,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.192546583850927,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.222961776747761,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.0069918599754395,
"surface_rank_synergy": 10.508465369868873,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.23105590062112213,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.5217391304347827,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 27.02600000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 7,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15565217391304342,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.794871794871783,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
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"feature_importance": {}
}