Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Kathinka von Deichmann
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 10:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Aliaksandra …: 82,5% Kathinka …: 17,5%
¿Por qué Aliaksandra Sasnovich?
UTR 12,29 vs 11,18 (+0,88) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aliaksandra … Kathinka … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,03 15,00 97,1%
Gamdom 1,04 13,00 96,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,21 5,71 82,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Aliaksandra …: -11,1% Kathinka …: +11,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Ranking #104
UTR Rating 12,29 Pro
UTR Ranking #42
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 15/31 = 48,4%
Kathinka von Deichmann
Ranking #258
UTR Rating 11,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #399
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 1/4 = 25,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 156,0000
rank_ratio 2,5294
log_rank_ratio 0,9280
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 477,0000
best_rank_diff 124,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 23,3871
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 5,9990
surface_matches_ratio 7,7500
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,3871
surface_wr_p2 25,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,5714
surface_wr_p2_stable 39,7059
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 4,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0323
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,3533
combined_confidence 0,6767
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,3861
first_serve_won_diff 5,0613
second_serve_won_diff -0,3742
bp_saved_diff 3,4419
bp_converted_diff 2,0516
aces_per_match_diff 1,9839
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 30,2250
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5745
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 10,4285
serve_consistency_p2 4,0351
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 21,7029
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1721
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0940
elite_surface_amplifier 23,3871
UTR
utr_diff 0,8800
utr_p1 0,4871
utr_p2 0,3835
utr_advantage 7,5214
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22893
API ID 15352802
Gamdom ID 592248
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22893,
    "api_id": 15352802,
    "gamdom_id": 592248,
    "player1": "Aliaksandra Sasnovich",
    "player2": "Kathinka von Deichmann",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-14T06:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.0303030303030303,
      "p2": 15.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.04,
      "p2": 13.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.04,
      "p2": 11.06
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8248,
    "prob_p2": 0.1752,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8248,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 104,
      "utr_singles": 12.29,
      "utr_ranking": 42,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 258,
      "utr_singles": 11.18,
      "utr_ranking": 399,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.29,
      "ranking": 42,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.18,
      "ranking": 399,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4870588235294118,
    "utr_p2": 0.38352941176470584,
    "utr_diff": 0.8800000000000008,
    "rank_ratio": 2.5294117647058822,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 477,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.441935483870971,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.38709677419355,
    "surface_wr_p2": 25.0,
    "utr_advantage": 7.521367521367528,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 124,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.9279867716373463,
    "rank_advantage": 156,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 5,
    "surface_wr_diff": 23.38709677419355,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.051612903225802,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 4,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.3861290322580615,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.574468085106383,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.9838709677419355,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6766666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.061290322580646,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.03225806451612903,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.42846253906502,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.035070497011834,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 21.70291643345407,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 39.705882352941174,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.3741935483871046,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 7.75,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 30.225000000000016,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 23.38709677419355,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17212903225806453,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.09399999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.999019607843137,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}