Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryotaro Matsumura
UTR Yokohama M02 | Hard |
15 Ene 2026, 05:00
15 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Naoki Nakagawa
Naoki …: 62,2%
Ryotaro …: 37,8%
¿Por qué Naoki Nakagawa?
UTR 13,50 vs 13,13
(+0,54)
— Niveles similares
Naoki …
W27-L22
55% WR
vs UTR 13,2
L1
Ryotaro …
W72-L16
82% WR
vs UTR 12,0
W6
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Naoki … | Ryotaro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,20 | 61,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,59 | 2,07 | 62,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,61 | 2,65 | 62,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Naoki …: +4,6%
Ryotaro …: -4,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Naoki Nakagawa
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#694
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (5p)
WR Hard
6/19 = 31,6%
Ryotaro Matsumura
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,13 Pro
UTR Ranking
#986
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Naoki Nakagawa
Record 2025
27W - 22L (55%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
13,2
Últimos 5:
L
W
L
W
W
Ryotaro Matsumura
Record 2025
72W - 16L (82%)
Racha
6W
UTR Oponentes
12,0
Últimos 5:
W
W
W
W
W
Análisis Momentum
Ryotaro Matsumura en racha: 6 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 31,5789 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,1014 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 19,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 31,5789 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 34,7826 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 19,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3684 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 54,2537 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 64,7000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 48,1000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 68,4000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 38,9000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,7368 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -66,6667 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -48,9000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 274,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 7,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -7,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,1983 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,7965 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1842 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6565 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5929 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,0571 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22899
API ID
15353232
Gamdom ID
592267
Torneo
UTR Yokohama M02
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22899,
"api_id": 15353232,
"gamdom_id": 592267,
"player1": "Naoki Nakagawa",
"player2": "Ryotaro Matsumura",
"tournament": "UTR Yokohama M02",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-15T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.6153846153846154,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.59,
"p2": 2.07
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.61,
"p2": 2.16
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6223,
"prob_p2": 0.3777,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6223,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.5,
"utr_ranking": 694,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 27,
"utr_v4_losses": 22,
"utr_v4_wr": 55.10204081632652,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.15,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.19,
"opponent_name": "Jumpei Yamasaki"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Yuma Tobe"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.94,
"opponent_name": "Taketo Takamisawa"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.4,
"opponent_name": "Ryota Tanuma"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.97,
"opponent_name": "Ryotaro Matsumura"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:56.455042+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 31.57894736842105,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 19,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.13,
"utr_ranking": 986,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 72,
"utr_v4_losses": 16,
"utr_v4_wr": 81.81818181818183,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 6,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.95,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "yuga tashiro"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Kotaro Mochizuki"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 10.0,
"opponent_name": "takashi yoshida"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Jacob Kailiang Shen"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Tokitaka Ito"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:25.548870+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.5,
"ranking": 694,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.13,
"ranking": 986,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.6564705882352941,
"utr_p2": 0.5929411764705881,
"utr_diff": 0.5400000000000009,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 68.4,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 7,
"momentum_diff": -66.66666666666666,
"p1_confidence": 0.6333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 31.57894736842105,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 4.057099924868527,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -7,
"surface_wr_diff": 31.57894736842105,
"bp_converted_diff": 38.9,
"p1_surface_matches": 19,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 54.253684210526316,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.736842105263158,
"combined_confidence": 0.4666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -6,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 64.7,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3684210526315789,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.198339492017945,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.796491775892001,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.78260869565217,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 48.1,
"surface_matches_ratio": 19.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -48.9,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 274,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.1842105263157895,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.10144927536232,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}