Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryotaro Matsumura
UTR Yokohama M02 | Hard |
15 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Naoki Nakagawa
Naoki …: 62,2% Ryotaro …: 37,8%
¿Por qué Naoki Nakagawa?
UTR 13,50 vs 13,13 (+0,54) — Niveles similares
Naoki …
W27-L22
55% WR
vs UTR 13,2
L1
Ryotaro …
W72-L16
82% WR
vs UTR 12,0
W6
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Naoki … Ryotaro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,20 61,9%
Gamdom 1,59 2,07 62,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,61 2,65 62,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Naoki …: +4,6% Ryotaro …: -4,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Naoki Nakagawa
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #694
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (5p)
WR Hard 6/19 = 31,6%
Ryotaro Matsumura
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,13 Pro
UTR Ranking #986
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (10p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Naoki Nakagawa
Record 2025 27W - 22L (55%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 13,2
Últimos 5:
L W L W W
Ryotaro Matsumura
Record 2025 72W - 16L (82%)
Racha 6W
UTR Oponentes 12,0
Últimos 5:
W W W W W
Análisis Momentum
Ryotaro Matsumura en racha: 6 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 31,5789
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,1014
surface_matches_ratio 19,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 31,5789
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 34,7826
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 19,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3684
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6333
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,4667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 54,2537
first_serve_won_diff 64,7000
second_serve_won_diff 48,1000
bp_saved_diff 68,4000
bp_converted_diff 38,9000
aces_per_match_diff 3,7368
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6667
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 33,3333
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -66,6667
weighted_momentum_diff -48,9000
current_streak_diff -6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 274,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 7,0000
match_load_diff -7,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 8,1983
serve_consistency_p2 8,7965
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1842
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,5400
utr_p1 0,6565
utr_p2 0,5929
utr_advantage 4,0571
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22899
API ID 15353232
Gamdom ID 592267
Torneo UTR Yokohama M02
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22899,
    "api_id": 15353232,
    "gamdom_id": 592267,
    "player1": "Naoki Nakagawa",
    "player2": "Ryotaro Matsumura",
    "tournament": "UTR Yokohama M02",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-15T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6153846153846154,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.59,
      "p2": 2.07
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.61,
      "p2": 2.16
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6223,
    "prob_p2": 0.3777,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6223,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.5,
      "utr_ranking": 694,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 27,
      "utr_v4_losses": 22,
      "utr_v4_wr": 55.10204081632652,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.15,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.19,
          "opponent_name": "Jumpei Yamasaki"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Yuma Tobe"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.94,
          "opponent_name": "Taketo Takamisawa"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.4,
          "opponent_name": "Ryota Tanuma"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.97,
          "opponent_name": "Ryotaro Matsumura"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:56.455042+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 31.57894736842105,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 19,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.13,
      "utr_ranking": 986,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 72,
      "utr_v4_losses": 16,
      "utr_v4_wr": 81.81818181818183,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 6,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.95,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "yuga tashiro"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Kotaro Mochizuki"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "takashi yoshida"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Jacob Kailiang Shen"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Tokitaka Ito"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:25.548870+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.5,
      "ranking": 694,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.13,
      "ranking": 986,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6564705882352941,
    "utr_p2": 0.5929411764705881,
    "utr_diff": 0.5400000000000009,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 68.4,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 7,
    "momentum_diff": -66.66666666666666,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 31.57894736842105,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 4.057099924868527,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -7,
    "surface_wr_diff": 31.57894736842105,
    "bp_converted_diff": 38.9,
    "p1_surface_matches": 19,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 54.253684210526316,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.736842105263158,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 64.7,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3684210526315789,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.198339492017945,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.796491775892001,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.78260869565217,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 48.1,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 19.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -48.9,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 274,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.1842105263157895,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.10144927536232,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}