Katerina Siniakova vs Dayana Yastremska
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Katerina Siniakova
Katerina …: 59,8% Dayana …: 40,2%
¿Por qué Katerina Siniakova?
UTR 12,46 vs 12,26 (+0,19) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Katerina … Dayana … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,57 42,0%
Gamdom 2,23 1,69 44,8%
IA Fair Odds 1,67 2,49 59,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Katerina …: +20,1% Dayana …: -20,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Katerina Siniakova
Ranking #45
UTR Rating 12,46 Pro
UTR Ranking #26
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/33 = 63,6%
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking #28
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #51
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -19,0000
rank_ratio 0,5870
log_rank_ratio -0,5328
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -438,0000
best_rank_diff -6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 8,4639
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 7,4898
surface_matches_ratio 1,1379
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 63,6364
surface_wr_p2 55,1724
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,1622
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5455
p1_surface_matches 33,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2727
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,8716
first_serve_won_diff 0,0438
second_serve_won_diff -4,1207
bp_saved_diff -1,8987
bp_converted_diff 0,2741
aces_per_match_diff -1,8286
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -15,4200
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6852
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8083
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5714
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8333
serve_consistency_p1 7,8892
serve_consistency_p2 13,5224
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -4,5096
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1554
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0327
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1900
utr_p1 0,5282
utr_p2 0,5059
utr_advantage 1,5329
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22906
API ID 15357560
Gamdom ID 592806
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22906,
    "api_id": 15357560,
    "gamdom_id": 592806,
    "player1": "Katerina Siniakova",
    "player2": "Dayana Yastremska",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T08:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.38,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.23,
      "p2": 1.69
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.18,
      "p2": 1.67
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5983,
    "prob_p2": 0.4017,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5983,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 45,
      "utr_singles": 12.46,
      "utr_ranking": 26,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.63636363636363,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 28,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 51,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.46,
      "ranking": 26,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 51,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5282352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.5058823529411766,
    "utr_diff": 0.1899999999999995,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5869565217391305,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": -438,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.8987460815047115,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 63.63636363636363,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
    "utr_advantage": 1.5328761597418274,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5328045304847658,
    "rank_advantage": -19,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 8.463949843260188,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.27408568443052417,
    "p1_surface_matches": 33,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.871577847439916,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6851851851851852,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8083333333333333,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.8286311389759666,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.04378265412749016,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2727272727272727,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.889195933020678,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.52235098291406,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -4.509630822284852,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.16216216216216,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.120689655172413,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.1379310344827587,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -15.420000000000009,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15536363636363637,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03272413793103446,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 7.489762489762495,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}