Katerina Siniakova vs Dayana Yastremska
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 12:00
13 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Katerina Siniakova
Katerina …: 59,8%
Dayana …: 40,2%
¿Por qué Katerina Siniakova?
UTR 12,46 vs 12,26
(+0,19)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Katerina … | Dayana … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,57 | 42,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,23 | 1,69 | 44,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,67 | 2,49 | 59,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Katerina …: +20,1%
Dayana …: -20,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Katerina Siniakova
Ranking
#45
UTR Rating
12,46 Pro
UTR Ranking
#26
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
21/33 = 63,6%
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking
#28
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#51
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -19,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5870 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5328 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -438,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -6,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 8,4639 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 7,4898 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1379 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 63,6364 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,1622 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,5455 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2727 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,8716 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0438 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -4,1207 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,8987 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,2741 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,8286 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -15,4200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6852 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8083 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5714 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,8892 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,5224 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -4,5096 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1554 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0327 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5282 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5059 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,5329 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22906
API ID
15357560
Gamdom ID
592806
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22906,
"api_id": 15357560,
"gamdom_id": 592806,
"player1": "Katerina Siniakova",
"player2": "Dayana Yastremska",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-13T08:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.38,
"p2": 1.5699999999999998
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.23,
"p2": 1.69
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.18,
"p2": 1.67
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5983,
"prob_p2": 0.4017,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5983,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 45,
"utr_singles": 12.46,
"utr_ranking": 26,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.63636363636363,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 28,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 51,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.46,
"ranking": 26,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.26,
"ranking": 51,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5058823529411766,
"utr_diff": 0.1899999999999995,
"rank_ratio": 0.5869565217391305,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -438,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.8987460815047115,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -10.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 63.63636363636363,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
"utr_advantage": 1.5328761597418274,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -6,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5328045304847658,
"rank_advantage": -19,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 8.463949843260188,
"bp_converted_diff": 0.27408568443052417,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.871577847439916,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6851851851851852,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8083333333333333,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.8286311389759666,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.04378265412749016,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2727272727272727,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.889195933020678,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.52235098291406,
"surface_rank_synergy": -4.509630822284852,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.16216216216216,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"second_serve_won_diff": -4.120689655172413,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.1379310344827587,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -15.420000000000009,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15536363636363637,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03272413793103446,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 7.489762489762495,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}