Daniel Merida vs Lukas Klein
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 10:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lukas Klein
Daniel …: 42,8% Lukas …: 57,2%
¿Por qué Lukas Klein?
UTR 14,00 vs 14,51 (-0,51) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniel … Lukas … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,53 42,1%
Gamdom 2,31 1,62 43,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,34 1,75 42,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniel …: +3,6% Lukas …: -3,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniel Merida
Ranking #164
UTR Rating 14,00 General
UTR Ranking #216
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 10/18 = 55,6%
Lukas Klein
Ranking #136
UTR Rating 14,51 Pro
UTR Ranking #170
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 9/23 = 39,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -22,0000
rank_ratio 0,8650
log_rank_ratio -0,1450
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -83,0000
best_rank_diff -54,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 16,4251
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 9,4332
surface_matches_ratio 0,7826
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,5556
surface_wr_p2 39,1304
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,7407
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1111
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,6833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -9,5415
first_serve_won_diff -6,4725
second_serve_won_diff 3,4109
bp_saved_diff 4,6254
bp_converted_diff 10,2188
aces_per_match_diff -3,6643
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 22,1140
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8511
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3750
serve_consistency_p1 4,9290
serve_consistency_p2 7,1317
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,3815
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0776
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1307
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5100
utr_p1 0,7059
utr_p2 0,7659
utr_advantage -3,5777
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22912
API ID 15357625
Gamdom ID 592729
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22912,
    "api_id": 15357625,
    "gamdom_id": 592729,
    "player1": "Daniel Merida",
    "player2": "Lukas Klein",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-14T06:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.375,
      "p2": 1.5333333333333332
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.31,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.23,
      "p2": 1.61
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4279,
    "prob_p2": 0.5721,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5721,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 164,
      "utr_singles": 14.0,
      "utr_ranking": 216,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 136,
      "utr_singles": 14.51,
      "utr_ranking": 170,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 39.130434782608695,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.0,
      "ranking": 216,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.51,
      "ranking": 170,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7058823529411765,
    "utr_p2": 0.7658823529411765,
    "utr_diff": -0.5099999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8650306748466258,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -83,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.62536231884058,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2": 39.130434782608695,
    "utr_advantage": -3.577692037881444,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -54,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.14499031042859406,
    "rank_advantage": -22,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 16.425120772946862,
    "bp_converted_diff": 10.21884057971014,
    "p1_surface_matches": 18,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": -9.5414734299517,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.851063829787234,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.6642512077294684,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -6.472463768115958,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1111111111111111,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.92900844676985,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.131685499660694,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.3814833596967144,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.74074074074074,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.410869565217382,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.782608695652174,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 22.11400000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0775555555555556,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.13069565217391305,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.433221099887763,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}