Dusan Lajovic vs Murphy Cassone
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 08:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Murphy Cassone
Dusan …: 25,9% Murphy …: 74,1%
¿Por qué Murphy Cassone?
UTR 14,39 vs 14,23 (+0,22) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Dusan … Murphy … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,73 2,00 57,9%
Gamdom 1,79 2,04 55,9%
IA Fair Odds 3,86 1,35 25,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Dusan …: -27,8% Murphy …: +27,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dusan Lajovic
Ranking #125
UTR Rating 14,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #206
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 6/17 = 35,3%
Murphy Cassone
Ranking #224
UTR Rating 14,23 Pro
UTR Ranking #271
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 30/48 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 90,0000
rank_ratio 1,7200
log_rank_ratio 0,5423
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 219,0000
best_rank_diff 149,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -27,2059
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -18,3639
surface_matches_ratio 0,3542
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 35,2941
surface_wr_p2 62,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 38,0952
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,5385
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 48,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2941
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,9271
first_serve_won_diff -10,4469
second_serve_won_diff -5,9647
bp_saved_diff -8,4025
bp_converted_diff -6,9333
aces_per_match_diff -2,9571
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -14,3350
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,6667
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8000
serve_consistency_p1 7,8056
serve_consistency_p2 7,5798
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -14,7544
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2371
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2150
elite_surface_amplifier -27,2059
UTR
utr_diff 0,2200
utr_p1 0,7541
utr_p2 0,7282
utr_advantage 1,5385
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22913
API ID 15355594
Gamdom ID 592611
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22913,
    "api_id": 15355594,
    "gamdom_id": 592611,
    "player1": "Dusan Lajovic",
    "player2": "Murphy Cassone",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-14T04:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.7272727272727273,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.79,
      "p2": 2.04
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.77,
      "p2": 2.0
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.259,
    "prob_p2": 0.741,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.741,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 125,
      "utr_singles": 14.39,
      "utr_ranking": 206,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 35.294117647058826,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 224,
      "utr_singles": 14.23,
      "utr_ranking": 271,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 48,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.39,
      "ranking": 206,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.23,
      "ranking": 271,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7541176470588236,
    "utr_p2": 0.728235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.22000000000000064,
    "rank_ratio": 1.72,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 219,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -8.402450980392153,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -18.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 35.294117647058826,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
    "utr_advantage": 1.538461538461543,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 149,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.5423242908253617,
    "rank_advantage": 90,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -27.205882352941174,
    "bp_converted_diff": -6.933333333333337,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 48,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.92709558823529,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.6666666666666667,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.957107843137255,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -10.446936274509795,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.29411764705882354,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.805638852140345,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.579840293573073,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -14.754410853337045,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 38.095238095238095,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.53846153846154,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.964705882352938,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.3541666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -14.335000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -27.205882352941174,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.23705882352941182,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21500000000000008,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.363858363858366,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}