Justina Mikulskyte vs Anastasia Gasanova
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Anastasia Gasanova
Justina …: 33,3% Anastasia …: 66,7%
¿Por qué Anastasia Gasanova?
UTR 11,15 vs 11,68 (-0,52) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (33%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Justina … Anastasia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,50 1,29 28,6%
Gamdom 3,80 1,28 26,3%
IA Fair Odds 3,00 1,50 33,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Justina …: +6,5% Anastasia …: -6,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Justina Mikulskyte
Ranking #217
UTR Rating 11,15 Pro
UTR Ranking #409
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 1/2 = 50,0%
Anastasia Gasanova
Ranking #213
UTR Rating 11,68 Pro
UTR Ranking #198
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -4,0000
rank_ratio 0,9815
log_rank_ratio -0,0187
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -9,0000
best_rank_diff -77,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -16,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,0847
surface_matches_ratio 0,6667
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 45,5556
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8095
p1_surface_matches 2,0000
p2_surface_matches 3,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3267
p2_confidence 0,3400
combined_confidence 0,3333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 10,3700
first_serve_won_diff 0,6000
second_serve_won_diff 16,9000
bp_saved_diff -23,3000
bp_converted_diff -3,8000
aces_per_match_diff 2,5000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 48,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff -14,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -14,1010
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 9,7820
serve_consistency_p2 6,8267
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,3115
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0040
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1627
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5200
utr_p1 0,3682
utr_p2 0,4294
utr_advantage -4,5654
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22915
API ID 15354364
Gamdom ID 592439
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22915,
    "api_id": 15354364,
    "gamdom_id": 592439,
    "player1": "Justina Mikulskyte",
    "player2": "Anastasia Gasanova",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.5,
      "p2": 1.2857142857142856
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.8,
      "p2": 1.28
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.61,
      "p2": 1.27
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3332,
    "prob_p2": 0.6668,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6668,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 217,
      "utr_singles": 11.15,
      "utr_ranking": 409,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 2,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 213,
      "utr_singles": 11.68,
      "utr_ranking": 198,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.15,
      "ranking": 409,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.68,
      "ranking": 198,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.36823529411764716,
    "utr_p2": 0.4294117647058824,
    "utr_diff": -0.5199999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 0.9814814814814815,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": -9,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -23.29999999999999,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -14.000000000000007,
    "p1_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": -4.565408252853376,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -77,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.01869213301215252,
    "rank_advantage": -4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -16.666666666666657,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.799999999999997,
    "p1_surface_matches": 2,
    "p2_surface_matches": 3,
    "serve_quality_diff": 10.36999999999999,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.5,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.5999999999999943,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.782003305681,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.8266918197017645,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.31153555020254187,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 45.55555555555556,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.809523809523796,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 16.900000000000006,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -14.101000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0040000000000000036,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16266666666666652,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.084656084656079,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}