Taylor Townsend vs Jazmin Ortenzi
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 07:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Taylor Townsend
Taylor …: 79,7% Jazmin …: 20,3%
¿Por qué Taylor Townsend?
UTR 12,25 vs 11,17 (+1,14) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Taylor … Jazmin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,07 9,00 93,3%
Gamdom 1,07 9,60 93,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,25 4,93 79,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Taylor …: -9,7% Jazmin …: +9,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Taylor Townsend
Ranking #116
UTR Rating 12,25 Pro
UTR Ranking #48
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 15/24 = 62,5%
Jazmin Ortenzi
Ranking #218
UTR Rating 11,17 Pro
UTR Ranking #404
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 101,0000
rank_ratio 1,8707
log_rank_ratio 0,6263
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 322,0000
best_rank_diff 169,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 62,5000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,9484
surface_matches_ratio 24,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,5000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,7143
surface_wr_p2_stable 44,4444
p1_surface_matches 24,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2500
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,5500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 62,0633
first_serve_won_diff 66,2000
second_serve_won_diff 59,6000
bp_saved_diff 66,3000
bp_converted_diff 40,1000
aces_per_match_diff 5,5417
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 48,0000
momentum_diff 14,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 10,3910
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,3474
serve_consistency_p2 5,6762
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 39,1442
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0240
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3990
elite_surface_amplifier 62,5000
UTR
utr_diff 1,1400
utr_p1 0,5024
utr_p2 0,3682
utr_advantage 9,7436
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22917
API ID 15357341
Gamdom ID 592727
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22917,
    "api_id": 15357341,
    "gamdom_id": 592727,
    "player1": "Taylor Townsend",
    "player2": "Jazmin Ortenzi",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-14T03:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.0714285714285714,
      "p2": 9.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.07,
      "p2": 9.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.06,
      "p2": 8.77
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.797,
    "prob_p2": 0.203,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.797,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 116,
      "utr_singles": 12.25,
      "utr_ranking": 48,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 24,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 218,
      "utr_singles": 11.17,
      "utr_ranking": 404,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.25,
      "ranking": 48,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.17,
      "ranking": 404,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5023529411764706,
    "utr_p2": 0.36823529411764716,
    "utr_diff": 1.1399999999999988,
    "rank_ratio": 1.8706896551724137,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 322,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 66.3,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 14.000000000000007,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 9.743589743589734,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 169,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6263071624340949,
    "rank_advantage": 101,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 62.5,
    "bp_converted_diff": 40.1,
    "p1_surface_matches": 24,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 62.06333333333334,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 5.541666666666667,
    "combined_confidence": 0.55,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 66.2,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.347372851998231,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.676217324105325,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 39.144197652130934,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.44444444444444,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 59.6,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 24.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 10.390999999999991,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 62.5,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.02400000000000002,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.399,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.948412698412696,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}