Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Stefan Palosi
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 19:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Lorenzo …: 56,2% Stefan …: 43,8%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez?
UTR 13,94 vs 13,73 (+0,25) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Stefan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,50 2,50 66,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,78 2,28 56,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: -6,3% Stefan …: +6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Ranking #449
UTR Rating 13,94 Pro
UTR Ranking #411
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 67% (6p)
WR Clay 11/23 = 47,8%
Stefan Palosi
Ranking #484
UTR Rating 13,73 Pro
UTR Ranking #535
Forma L5 75% (4p)
Forma L10 75% (4p)
WR Clay 4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 54,0000
rank_ratio 1,1211
log_rank_ratio 0,1143
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 103,0000
best_rank_diff 76,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,3168
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,1624
surface_matches_ratio 3,2857
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 47,8261
surface_wr_p2 57,1429
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,1481
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,3247
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0435
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,5800
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,6006
first_serve_won_diff 2,1000
second_serve_won_diff -7,8000
bp_saved_diff -3,6000
bp_converted_diff 12,2000
aces_per_match_diff -2,1553
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,1500
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 79,5918
momentum_diff -21,5918
weighted_momentum_diff -16,1939
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 110,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 4,1826
serve_consistency_p2 13,1902
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,0648
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0757
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1254
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2500
utr_p1 0,7000
utr_p2 0,6706
utr_advantage 1,8083
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22925
API ID 15359684
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22925,
    "api_id": 15359684,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez",
    "player2": "Stefan Palosi",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T15:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.69,
      "p2": 2.07
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5617,
    "prob_p2": 0.4383,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5617,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 449,
      "utr_singles": 13.94,
      "utr_ranking": 411,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 47.82608695652174,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 484,
      "utr_singles": 13.73,
      "utr_ranking": 535,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.94,
      "ranking": 411,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.73,
      "ranking": 535,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7,
    "utr_p2": 0.6705882352941176,
    "utr_diff": 0.25,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1210762331838564,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 79.59183673469387,
    "points_diff": 103,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.6000000000000085,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.15000000000000002,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -21.591836734693878,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 47.82608695652174,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
    "utr_advantage": 1.8083182640144666,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 76,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.11428914640212759,
    "rank_advantage": 54,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -9.316770186335397,
    "bp_converted_diff": 12.200000000000003,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.600559006211178,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.1552795031055902,
    "combined_confidence": 0.58,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.1000000000000085,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.043478260869565216,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.182620546001929,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.190152553984465,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.0648057118210636,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.148148148148145,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.799999999999997,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.2857142857142856,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -16.193877551020407,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 110,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07573913043478264,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12542857142857144,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.16238576238576,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}