Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Stefan Palosi
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 19:55
13 Ene 2026, 19:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Lorenzo …: 56,2%
Stefan …: 43,8%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez?
UTR 13,94 vs 13,73
(+0,25)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Stefan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,50 | 2,50 | 66,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,78 | 2,28 | 56,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -6,3%
Stefan …: +6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Ranking
#449
UTR Rating
13,94 Pro
UTR Ranking
#411
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
67% (6p)
WR Clay
11/23 = 47,8%
Stefan Palosi
Ranking
#484
UTR Rating
13,73 Pro
UTR Ranking
#535
Forma L5
75% (4p)
Forma L10
75% (4p)
WR Clay
4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 54,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,1211 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,1143 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 103,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 76,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,3168 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -4,1624 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,2857 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 47,8261 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,1481 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,3247 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0435 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,5800 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -5,6006 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,1000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,8000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,6000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 12,2000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,1553 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,1500 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 79,5918 | |
| momentum_diff | -21,5918 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -16,1939 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 110,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,1826 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,1902 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,0648 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0757 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1254 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7000 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,6706 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,8083 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22925
API ID
15359684
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22925,
"api_id": 15359684,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez",
"player2": "Stefan Palosi",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-13T15:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5,
"p2": 2.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.69,
"p2": 2.07
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5617,
"prob_p2": 0.4383,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5617,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 449,
"utr_singles": 13.94,
"utr_ranking": 411,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 47.82608695652174,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 484,
"utr_singles": 13.73,
"utr_ranking": 535,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 75.0,
"form_l10_wr": 75.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.94,
"ranking": 411,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.73,
"ranking": 535,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7,
"utr_p2": 0.6705882352941176,
"utr_diff": 0.25,
"rank_ratio": 1.1210762331838564,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 79.59183673469387,
"points_diff": 103,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.6000000000000085,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.15000000000000002,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -21.591836734693878,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 47.82608695652174,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
"utr_advantage": 1.8083182640144666,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 76,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.11428914640212759,
"rank_advantage": 54,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -9.316770186335397,
"bp_converted_diff": 12.200000000000003,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 7,
"serve_quality_diff": -5.600559006211178,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.1552795031055902,
"combined_confidence": 0.58,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.1000000000000085,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.043478260869565216,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.182620546001929,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.190152553984465,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.0648057118210636,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.148148148148145,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.799999999999997,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.2857142857142856,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -16.193877551020407,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 110,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07573913043478264,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12542857142857144,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.16238576238576,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}