Murkel Dellien vs Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 32
13 Ene 2026, 23:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Murkel Dellien
Murkel …: 55,9% Joaquin …: 44,1%
¿Por qué Murkel Dellien?
UTR 13,97 vs 13,00 (+0,99) — Niveles similares
Murkel …
Sin datos
Joaquin …
W40-L23
63% WR
vs UTR 13,3
W4
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Murkel … Joaquin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,53 2,38 65,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,79 2,27 55,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Murkel …: -4,9% Joaquin …: +4,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Murkel Dellien
Ranking #243
UTR Rating 13,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #397
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Clay 20/45 = 44,4%
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,00 General
UTR Ranking #451
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 67% (9p)
WR Clay 8/15 = 53,3%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Murkel Dellien
Sin datos UTR v4
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Record 2025 40W - 23L (63%)
Racha 4W
UTR Oponentes 13,3
Últimos 5:
W W W W L
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 253,0000
rank_ratio 2,0243
log_rank_ratio 0,7052
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 218,0000
best_rank_diff 332,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -8,8889
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,8002
surface_matches_ratio 3,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 44,4444
surface_wr_p2 53,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 44,8980
surface_wr_p2_stable 52,6316
p1_surface_matches 45,0000
p2_surface_matches 15,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1111
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,5000
combined_confidence 0,7500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,2500
first_serve_won_diff 0,2000
second_serve_won_diff -1,5000
bp_saved_diff -1,6000
bp_converted_diff -7,4000
aces_per_match_diff 0,8000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -37,7700
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 64,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1429
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 9,4825
serve_consistency_p2 15,4658
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -6,2686
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3086
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2863
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,9900
utr_p1 0,7047
utr_p2 0,5882
utr_advantage 7,3361
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22927
API ID 15359688
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22927,
    "api_id": 15359688,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Murkel Dellien",
    "player2": "Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-13T19:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.72,
      "p2": 2.04
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5594,
    "prob_p2": 0.4406,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5594,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 243,
      "utr_singles": 13.97,
      "utr_ranking": 397,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 44.44444444444444,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 45,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.0,
      "utr_ranking": 451,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 40,
      "utr_v4_losses": 23,
      "utr_v4_wr": 63.49206349206349,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.28,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.45,
          "opponent_name": "Mateo Carballo"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.64,
          "opponent_name": "Francisco Tomas Geschwind"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.37,
          "opponent_name": "Maximo Zeitune"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.52,
          "opponent_name": "Felix Corwin"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.7,
          "opponent_name": "Juan Estevez"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:56.264846+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 15,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 9
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.97,
      "ranking": 397,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.0,
      "ranking": 451,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7047058823529412,
    "utr_p2": 0.5882352941176471,
    "utr_diff": 0.9900000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 2.0242914979757085,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 218,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.5999999999999943,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_p1": 44.44444444444444,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": 7.336050389032976,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 332,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.7052197617942145,
    "rank_advantage": 253,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.14285714285714285,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -8.888888888888893,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.399999999999999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 45,
    "p2_surface_matches": 15,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.25,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8,
    "combined_confidence": 0.75,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.20000000000000284,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.1111111111111111,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.482509780955045,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 15.465784855115958,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -6.268620104837465,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.89795918367347,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.63157894736842,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.5,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -37.77000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.3085555555555556,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28633333333333333,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.80021482277121,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}