Daria Kasatkina vs Jaqueline Cristian
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jaqueline Cristian
Daria …: 49,2% Jaqueline …: 50,8%
¿Por qué Jaqueline Cristian?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daria … Jaqueline … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,20 59,9%
Gamdom 1,71 2,19 58,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,03 1,97 49,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Daria …: -7,6% Jaqueline …: +7,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daria Kasatkina
Ranking #43
UTR Rating 12,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #58
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 12/25 = 48,0%
Jaqueline Cristian
Ranking #35
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 19/34 = 55,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -11,0000
rank_ratio 0,7708
log_rank_ratio -0,2603
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -156,0000
best_rank_diff 30,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,8824
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,4050
surface_matches_ratio 0,7353
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,0000
surface_wr_p2 55,8824
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,2759
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,2632
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 34,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0400
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,8668
first_serve_won_diff -2,6412
second_serve_won_diff -0,0559
bp_saved_diff -3,7647
bp_converted_diff 5,6000
aces_per_match_diff -0,7647
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -35,1750
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6488
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7018
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8333
serve_consistency_p1 6,1975
serve_consistency_p2 4,9922
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,0516
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0090
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0478
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,4941
utr_p2 0,4941
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22933
API ID 15328450
Gamdom ID 580617
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22933,
    "api_id": 15328450,
    "gamdom_id": 580617,
    "player1": "Daria Kasatkina",
    "player2": "Jaqueline Cristian",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-14T00:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.71,
      "p2": 2.19
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.69,
      "p2": 2.15
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4922,
    "prob_p2": 0.5078,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5078,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 43,
      "utr_singles": 12.18,
      "utr_ranking": 58,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 35,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.88235294117647,
      "wr_surface_wins": 19,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.18,
      "ranking": 58,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.49411764705882344,
    "utr_p2": 0.49411764705882344,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7708333333333334,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -156,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.764705882352942,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -49.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.88235294117647,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 30,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.2602830982636664,
    "rank_advantage": -11,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.882352941176471,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.599999999999994,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 34,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.8667647058823533,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6487804878048781,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7017543859649122,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.7647058823529411,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.641176470588242,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.197494194213437,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.992202313430615,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.0516432451371354,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.26315789473685,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.055882352941175384,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7352941176470589,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -35.175,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.009000000000000008,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.04782352941176471,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.405021173623722,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}