Daria Kasatkina vs Jaqueline Cristian
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 04:30
14 Ene 2026, 04:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jaqueline Cristian
Daria …: 49,2%
Jaqueline …: 50,8%
¿Por qué Jaqueline Cristian?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daria … | Jaqueline … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,20 | 59,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,71 | 2,19 | 58,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,03 | 1,97 | 49,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daria …: -7,6%
Jaqueline …: +7,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daria Kasatkina
Ranking
#43
UTR Rating
12,18 Pro
UTR Ranking
#58
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
12/25 = 48,0%
Jaqueline Cristian
Ranking
#35
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
19/34 = 55,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -11,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7708 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2603 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -156,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 30,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -7,8824 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,4050 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7353 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,8824 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,2759 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,2632 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0400 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,8668 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,6412 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,0559 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,7647 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,6000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,7647 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -35,1750 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6488 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7018 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,1975 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,9922 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 2,0516 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0090 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0478 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4941 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4941 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22933
API ID
15328450
Gamdom ID
580617
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22933,
"api_id": 15328450,
"gamdom_id": 580617,
"player1": "Daria Kasatkina",
"player2": "Jaqueline Cristian",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-14T00:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.71,
"p2": 2.19
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.69,
"p2": 2.15
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4922,
"prob_p2": 0.5078,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5078,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 43,
"utr_singles": 12.18,
"utr_ranking": 58,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 35,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.88235294117647,
"wr_surface_wins": 19,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.18,
"ranking": 58,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.49411764705882344,
"utr_p2": 0.49411764705882344,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.7708333333333334,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -156,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.764705882352942,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -49.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.88235294117647,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 30,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.2602830982636664,
"rank_advantage": -11,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -7.882352941176471,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.599999999999994,
"p1_surface_matches": 25,
"p2_surface_matches": 34,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.8667647058823533,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6487804878048781,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7017543859649122,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.7647058823529411,
"combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.641176470588242,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.197494194213437,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.992202313430615,
"surface_rank_synergy": 2.0516432451371354,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.26315789473685,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.055882352941175384,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7352941176470589,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -35.175,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.009000000000000008,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.04782352941176471,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.405021173623722,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}