Juan Pablo Varillas vs Pedro Sakamoto
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 17:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Juan …: 67,6% Pedro …: 32,5%
¿Por qué Juan Pablo Varillas?
UTR 14,26 vs 13,76 (+0,51) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Pedro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,40 2,75 71,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,48 3,08 67,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: +1,3% Pedro …: -1,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Pablo Varillas
Ranking #244
UTR Rating 14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #255
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Clay 23/37 = 62,2%
Pedro Sakamoto
Ranking #373
UTR Rating 13,76 Pro
UTR Ranking #521
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 67% (9p)
WR Clay 12/23 = 52,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 125,0000
rank_ratio 1,4941
log_rank_ratio 0,4015
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 86,0000
best_rank_diff 211,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 9,9882
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,0593
surface_matches_ratio 1,6087
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,1622
surface_wr_p2 52,1739
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,9756
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,8519
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2432
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,6606
first_serve_won_diff 4,0000
second_serve_won_diff 5,7000
bp_saved_diff 3,9000
bp_converted_diff 11,0000
aces_per_match_diff -0,0247
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -1,4700
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 10,0099
serve_consistency_p2 15,6744
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,0103
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0034
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1467
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,5100
utr_p1 0,7376
utr_p2 0,6776
utr_advantage 3,6390
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22934
API ID 15327989
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22934,
    "api_id": 15327989,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Juan Pablo Varillas",
    "player2": "Pedro Sakamoto",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-14T13:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.29,
      "p2": 3.41
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6755,
    "prob_p2": 0.3245,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6755,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 244,
      "utr_singles": 14.26,
      "utr_ranking": 255,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 373,
      "utr_singles": 13.76,
      "utr_ranking": 521,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 52.17391304347826,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 9
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.26,
      "ranking": 255,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.76,
      "ranking": 521,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7376470588235293,
    "utr_p2": 0.6776470588235294,
    "utr_diff": 0.5099999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 1.4940711462450593,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 86,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.9000000000000057,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
    "surface_wr_p2": 52.17391304347826,
    "utr_advantage": 3.6389582590082035,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 211,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.40150470689206746,
    "rank_advantage": 125,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 9.988249118683903,
    "bp_converted_diff": 11.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.660646298472386,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.024676850763807323,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.009854546497493,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 15.6744404251145,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.010329034762131,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.85185185185185,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 5.699999999999996,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.608695652173913,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -1.470000000000013,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0033783783783783994,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1467391304347826,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.059319482083714,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}