Juan Pablo Varillas vs Pedro Sakamoto
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 17:00
14 Ene 2026, 17:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Juan …: 67,6%
Pedro …: 32,5%
¿Por qué Juan Pablo Varillas?
UTR 14,26 vs 13,76
(+0,51)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Juan … | Pedro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,40 | 2,75 | 71,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,48 | 3,08 | 67,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Juan …: +1,3%
Pedro …: -1,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Pablo Varillas
Ranking
#244
UTR Rating
14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#255
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Clay
23/37 = 62,2%
Pedro Sakamoto
Ranking
#373
UTR Rating
13,76 Pro
UTR Ranking
#521
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
67% (9p)
WR Clay
12/23 = 52,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 125,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,4941 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4015 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 86,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 211,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 9,9882 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,0593 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,6087 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,1622 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 52,1739 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,9756 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,8519 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2432 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,6606 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 5,7000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,9000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 11,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,0247 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -1,4700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,0099 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 15,6744 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 4,0103 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0034 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1467 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7376 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,6776 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,6390 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22934
API ID
15327989
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22934,
"api_id": 15327989,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Juan Pablo Varillas",
"player2": "Pedro Sakamoto",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-14T13:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.29,
"p2": 3.41
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6755,
"prob_p2": 0.3245,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6755,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 244,
"utr_singles": 14.26,
"utr_ranking": 255,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 373,
"utr_singles": 13.76,
"utr_ranking": 521,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 52.17391304347826,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 9
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 255,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 521,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.6776470588235294,
"utr_diff": 0.5099999999999998,
"rank_ratio": 1.4940711462450593,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": 86,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.9000000000000057,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
"surface_wr_p2": 52.17391304347826,
"utr_advantage": 3.6389582590082035,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 211,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.40150470689206746,
"rank_advantage": 125,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 9.988249118683903,
"bp_converted_diff": 11.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.660646298472386,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.024676850763807323,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.009854546497493,
"serve_consistency_p2": 15.6744404251145,
"surface_rank_synergy": 4.010329034762131,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.85185185185185,
"second_serve_won_diff": 5.699999999999996,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.608695652173913,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -1.470000000000013,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0033783783783783994,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1467391304347826,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.059319482083714,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}