Marcos Giron vs Alex Michelsen
Auckland | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 02:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marcos Giron
Marcos …: 51,0% Alex …: 49,0%
¿Por qué Marcos Giron?
UTR 15,30 vs 15,12 (+0,28) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marcos … Alex … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
Gamdom 2,00 1,82 50,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,96 2,04 51,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Marcos …: +9,7% Alex …: -9,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marcos Giron
Ranking #51
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 12/28 = 42,9%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking #38
UTR Rating 15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #87
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -23,0000
rank_ratio 0,6167
log_rank_ratio -0,4834
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -455,0000
best_rank_diff -7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,0417
surface_matches_ratio 0,8235
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 43,7500
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 34,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,7914
first_serve_won_diff 0,5908
second_serve_won_diff 1,0513
bp_saved_diff 1,2542
bp_converted_diff 3,5172
aces_per_match_diff 1,0903
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 2,3500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9215
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9762
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7273
serve_consistency_p1 4,8688
serve_consistency_p2 10,4964
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,4530
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0484
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0230
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2800
utr_p1 0,8647
utr_p2 0,8318
utr_advantage 1,8409
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22936
API ID 15327198
Gamdom ID 579400
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22936,
    "api_id": 15327198,
    "gamdom_id": 579400,
    "player1": "Marcos Giron",
    "player2": "Alex Michelsen",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-13T22:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.82
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.98,
      "p2": 1.81
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5104,
    "prob_p2": 0.4896,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5104,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 51,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 38,
      "utr_singles": 15.12,
      "utr_ranking": 87,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.12,
      "ranking": 87,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8647058823529411,
    "utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.27999999999999936,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6166666666666667,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -455,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.2542016806722671,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.840894148586452,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -7,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.4834266495778762,
    "rank_advantage": -23,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.142857142857146,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.517226890756298,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 34,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.7914285714285683,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9214659685863874,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.090336134453782,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.590756302521001,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.868805182415298,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.496388892157793,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.4530474969848313,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.0512605042016858,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8235294117647058,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 2.3500000000000085,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.04842857142857143,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.02300000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.041666666666667,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}