Marcos Giron vs Alex Michelsen
Auckland | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 02:30
14 Ene 2026, 02:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marcos Giron
Marcos …: 51,0%
Alex …: 49,0%
¿Por qué Marcos Giron?
UTR 15,30 vs 15,12
(+0,28)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Marcos … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,30 | 1,62 | 43,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,00 | 1,82 | 50,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,96 | 2,04 | 51,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Marcos …: +9,7%
Alex …: -9,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marcos Giron
Ranking
#51
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
12/28 = 42,9%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking
#38
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#87
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -23,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6167 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,4834 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -455,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -7,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -7,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,0417 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8235 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 43,7500 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,7914 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,5908 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,0513 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,2542 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,5172 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,0903 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 2,3500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9215 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9762 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,8688 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,4964 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,4530 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0484 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0230 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,8409 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22936
API ID
15327198
Gamdom ID
579400
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22936,
"api_id": 15327198,
"gamdom_id": 579400,
"player1": "Marcos Giron",
"player2": "Alex Michelsen",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-13T22:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.62
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.82
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.98,
"p2": 1.81
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5104,
"prob_p2": 0.4896,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5104,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 51,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 38,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 87,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.3,
"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.12,
"ranking": 87,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.27999999999999936,
"rank_ratio": 0.6166666666666667,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": -455,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.2542016806722671,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 1.840894148586452,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -7,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.4834266495778762,
"rank_advantage": -23,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -7.142857142857146,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.517226890756298,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 34,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.7914285714285683,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9214659685863874,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.090336134453782,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.590756302521001,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.868805182415298,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.496388892157793,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.4530474969848313,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.75,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.0512605042016858,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8235294117647058,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 2.3500000000000085,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.04842857142857143,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.02300000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.041666666666667,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}