Elmer Moller vs Elias Ymer
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 08:05
14 Ene 2026, 08:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Elmer …: 14,1%
Elias …: 85,9%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elmer … | Elias … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,53 | 42,1% |
| Gamdom | 2,21 | 1,67 | 45,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 7,09 | 1,16 | 14,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elmer …: -25,1%
Elias …: +25,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elmer Moller
Ranking
#119
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
2/9 = 22,2%
Elias Ymer
Ranking
#175
UTR Rating
14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking
#284
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 56,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,4706 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3857 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 180,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 3,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -42,0635 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -19,9627 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,3214 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 22,2222 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 32,9984 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 62,5000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 9,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,5556 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4200 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6767 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -5,3344 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -6,1571 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,7929 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,4667 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,5357 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,3968 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 33,7150 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,3429 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5385 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,4137 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,5166 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -16,2223 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,3338 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1989 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7224 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7224 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22943
API ID
15361662
Gamdom ID
594551
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 2
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22943,
"api_id": 15361662,
"gamdom_id": 594551,
"player1": "Elmer Moller",
"player2": "Elias Ymer",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 2",
"date": "2026-01-14T04:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.375,
"p2": 1.5333333333333332
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.21,
"p2": 1.67
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.14,
"p2": 1.67
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1411,
"prob_p2": 0.8589,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8589,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 119,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 22.22222222222222,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 175,
"utr_singles": 14.2,
"utr_ranking": 284,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 284,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7223529411764706,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.4705882352941178,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 180,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.4666666666666686,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 49.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.42,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 22.22222222222222,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 3,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.38566248081198473,
"rank_advantage": 56,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5384615384615384,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -42.06349206349207,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.535714285714299,
"p1_surface_matches": 9,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": -5.334365079365085,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.34285714285714286,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.3968253968253967,
"combined_confidence": 0.6766666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -6.157142857142873,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.5555555555555556,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.4137329145977624,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.516632866843273,
"surface_rank_synergy": -16.222310700821584,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.99843014128729,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.5,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.7928571428571374,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.32142857142857145,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 33.715,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.33377777777777784,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.19885714285714295,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -19.962728937728937,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}