Elmer Moller vs Elias Ymer
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 08:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Elmer …: 14,1% Elias …: 85,9%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elmer … Elias … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,53 42,1%
Gamdom 2,21 1,67 45,2%
IA Fair Odds 7,09 1,16 14,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Elmer …: -25,1% Elias …: +25,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elmer Moller
Ranking #119
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 2/9 = 22,2%
Elias Ymer
Ranking #175
UTR Rating 14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking #284
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 18/28 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 56,0000
rank_ratio 1,4706
log_rank_ratio 0,3857
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 180,0000
best_rank_diff 3,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -42,0635
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -19,9627
surface_matches_ratio 0,3214
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 22,2222
surface_wr_p2 64,2857
surface_wr_p1_stable 32,9984
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,5000
p1_surface_matches 9,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5556
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4200
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,6767
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,3344
first_serve_won_diff -6,1571
second_serve_won_diff 1,7929
bp_saved_diff -2,4667
bp_converted_diff 3,5357
aces_per_match_diff -1,3968
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 33,7150
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3429
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5385
serve_consistency_p1 2,4137
serve_consistency_p2 5,5166
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -16,2223
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3338
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1989
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,7224
utr_p2 0,7224
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22943
API ID 15361662
Gamdom ID 594551
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22943,
    "api_id": 15361662,
    "gamdom_id": 594551,
    "player1": "Elmer Moller",
    "player2": "Elias Ymer",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-14T04:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.375,
      "p2": 1.5333333333333332
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.21,
      "p2": 1.67
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.14,
      "p2": 1.67
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1411,
    "prob_p2": 0.8589,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8589,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 119,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 22.22222222222222,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 175,
      "utr_singles": 14.2,
      "utr_ranking": 284,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.2,
      "ranking": 284,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7223529411764706,
    "utr_p2": 0.7223529411764706,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.4705882352941178,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 180,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.4666666666666686,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 49.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.42,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 22.22222222222222,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 3,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.38566248081198473,
    "rank_advantage": 56,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5384615384615384,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -42.06349206349207,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.535714285714299,
    "p1_surface_matches": 9,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.334365079365085,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.34285714285714286,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.3968253968253967,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6766666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -6.157142857142873,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5555555555555556,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.4137329145977624,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.516632866843273,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -16.222310700821584,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.99843014128729,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.7928571428571374,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.32142857142857145,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 33.715,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.33377777777777784,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.19885714285714295,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -19.962728937728937,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}