Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Maestrelli
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 06:50
14 Ene 2026, 06:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francesco Maestrelli
Thiago …: 20,3%
Francesco …: 79,7%
¿Por qué Francesco Maestrelli?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Thiago … | Francesco … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,00 | 1,73 | 50,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,15 | 1,71 | 46,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,93 | 1,25 | 20,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Thiago …: -26,1%
Francesco …: +26,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Ranking
#217
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
1/6 = 16,7%
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking
#141
UTR Rating
14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking
#224
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
17/26 = 65,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -75,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6528 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,4265 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -173,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 79,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -48,7179 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -18,4157 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,2308 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 16,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,3846 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 33,7895 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 6,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,6667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3800 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6233 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,3395 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,6538 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -13,2897 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,9282 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -13,6603 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,0897 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,1890 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4889 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7143 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,7643 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,3133 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 20,7791 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2583 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0788 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7459 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7459 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22948
API ID
15361650
Gamdom ID
594501
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 2
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22948,
"api_id": 15361650,
"gamdom_id": 594501,
"player1": "Thiago Seyboth Wild",
"player2": "Francesco Maestrelli",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 2",
"date": "2026-01-14T02:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.7272727272727273
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.15,
"p2": 1.71
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.69
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2029,
"prob_p2": 0.7971,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7971,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 217,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 16.666666666666664,
"wr_surface_wins": 1,
"wr_surface_total": 6,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 141,
"utr_singles": 14.34,
"utr_ranking": 224,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.34,
"ranking": 224,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7458823529411764,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.6527777777777778,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -173,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.928205128205128,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -7.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.38,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 16.666666666666664,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.38461538461539,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 79,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.4265185173059967,
"rank_advantage": -75,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -48.71794871794872,
"bp_converted_diff": -13.660256410256409,
"p1_surface_matches": 6,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.339487179487179,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.488888888888889,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.08974358974359031,
"combined_confidence": 0.6233333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.653846153846146,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.6666666666666666,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.7643022927556755,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.313296498659149,
"surface_rank_synergy": 20.779107253369073,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.78947368421053,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": -13.289743589743594,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.189,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2583333333333334,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0788461538461539,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.415672514619878,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}