Carson Branstine vs Daria Snigur
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 10:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daria Snigur
Carson …: 33,1% Daria …: 66,9%
¿Por qué Daria Snigur?
UTR 11,83 vs 11,96 (-0,07) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carson … Daria … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,53 42,1%
Gamdom 2,95 1,42 33,9%
IA Fair Odds 3,02 1,49 33,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Carson …: -6,2% Daria …: +6,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carson Branstine
Ranking #180
UTR Rating 11,83 Pro
UTR Ranking #140
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 1/4 = 25,0%
Daria Snigur
Ranking #136
UTR Rating 11,96 Pro
UTR Ranking #117
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 7/13 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -43,0000
rank_ratio 0,7598
log_rank_ratio -0,2747
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -137,0000
best_rank_diff -67,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -28,8462
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,6297
surface_matches_ratio 0,3077
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 25,0000
surface_wr_p2 53,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 46,5789
surface_wr_p2_stable 52,9412
p1_surface_matches 4,0000
p2_surface_matches 13,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3533
p2_confidence 0,4733
combined_confidence 0,4133
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 10,4437
first_serve_won_diff 6,1077
second_serve_won_diff 4,2481
bp_saved_diff 4,9865
bp_converted_diff -13,6288
aces_per_match_diff 3,0577
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -24,3300
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 13,9839
serve_consistency_p2 6,1009
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 7,9249
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2070
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0045
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0700
utr_p1 0,4518
utr_p2 0,4600
utr_advantage -0,5895
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22950
API ID 15361664
Gamdom ID 594555
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22950,
    "api_id": 15361664,
    "gamdom_id": 594555,
    "player1": "Carson Branstine",
    "player2": "Daria Snigur",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-14T06:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.375,
      "p2": 1.5333333333333332
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.95,
      "p2": 1.42
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.89,
      "p2": 1.39
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3307,
    "prob_p2": 0.6693,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6693,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 180,
      "utr_singles": 11.83,
      "utr_ranking": 140,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 136,
      "utr_singles": 11.96,
      "utr_ranking": 117,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 13,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.83,
      "ranking": 140,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.96,
      "ranking": 117,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4517647058823529,
    "utr_p2": 0.46,
    "utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7597765363128491,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -137,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.986538461538466,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -27.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.47333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 25.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.84615384615385,
    "utr_advantage": -0.5894736842105287,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -67,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.274730920104703,
    "rank_advantage": -43,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -28.846153846153847,
    "bp_converted_diff": -13.628846153846155,
    "p1_surface_matches": 4,
    "p2_surface_matches": 13,
    "serve_quality_diff": 10.443653846153843,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.0576923076923075,
    "combined_confidence": 0.41333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.107692307692304,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.98389356911113,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.100922772288282,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 7.924930387635664,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 46.57894736842105,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.2480769230769155,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.3076923076923077,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -24.330000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.20699999999999996,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.004538461538461602,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.629721362229106,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}