Elvina Kalieva vs Yexin MA
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Yexin MA
Elvina …: 43,5% Yexin …: 56,5%
¿Por qué Yexin MA?
UTR 11,52 vs 11,60 (-0,09) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elvina … Yexin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,83 1,83 54,5%
Gamdom 1,85 2,01 54,1%
IA Fair Odds 2,30 1,77 43,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Elvina …: -6,5% Yexin …: +6,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elvina Kalieva
Ranking #207
UTR Rating 11,52 Pro
UTR Ranking #259
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 3/5 = 60,0%
Yexin MA
Ranking #225
UTR Rating 11,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #217
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 18,0000
rank_ratio 1,0874
log_rank_ratio 0,0838
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 27,0000
best_rank_diff 9,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -6,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,6360
surface_matches_ratio 1,6667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 56,3492
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8095
p1_surface_matches 5,0000
p2_surface_matches 3,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3667
p2_confidence 0,3400
combined_confidence 0,3533
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,2800
first_serve_won_diff -2,9000
second_serve_won_diff 7,9000
bp_saved_diff 10,0000
bp_converted_diff -21,0000
aces_per_match_diff -2,6000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -3,1340
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 12,0071
serve_consistency_p2 8,4812
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,5585
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0820
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1847
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0900
utr_p1 0,4071
utr_p2 0,4176
utr_advantage -0,7823
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22951
API ID 15361651
Gamdom ID 594500
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22951,
    "api_id": 15361651,
    "gamdom_id": 594500,
    "player1": "Elvina Kalieva",
    "player2": "Yexin MA",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8333333333333335,
      "p2": 1.8333333333333335
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.85,
      "p2": 2.01
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.77,
      "p2": 1.97
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4347,
    "prob_p2": 0.5653,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5653,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 207,
      "utr_singles": 11.52,
      "utr_ranking": 259,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 225,
      "utr_singles": 11.6,
      "utr_ranking": 217,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.52,
      "ranking": 259,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.6,
      "ranking": 217,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.40705882352941186,
    "utr_p2": 0.4176470588235295,
    "utr_diff": -0.08999999999999986,
    "rank_ratio": 1.087378640776699,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": 27,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.999999999999993,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "p2_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": -0.782268578878747,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 9,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.08376988306545874,
    "rank_advantage": 18,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -6.666666666666657,
    "bp_converted_diff": -21.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 5,
    "p2_surface_matches": 3,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.280000000000001,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.6,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3533333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.9000000000000057,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.007133777961235,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.481206365750614,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.5584658871030574,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.34920634920635,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.809523809523796,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.900000000000006,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.6666666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -3.1340000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08199999999999996,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18466666666666653,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.635978835978831,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}