Elvina Kalieva vs Yexin MA
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
14 Ene 2026, 03:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Yexin MA
Elvina …: 43,5%
Yexin …: 56,5%
¿Por qué Yexin MA?
UTR 11,52 vs 11,60
(-0,09)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elvina … | Yexin … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,83 | 1,83 | 54,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,85 | 2,01 | 54,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,30 | 1,77 | 43,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elvina …: -6,5%
Yexin …: +6,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elvina Kalieva
Ranking
#207
UTR Rating
11,52 Pro
UTR Ranking
#259
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
3/5 = 60,0%
Yexin MA
Ranking
#225
UTR Rating
11,60 Pro
UTR Ranking
#217
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
2/3 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 18,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0874 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0838 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 27,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 9,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -6,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,6360 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,6667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 56,3492 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,8095 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 5,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 3,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3400 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3533 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,2800 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,9000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 7,9000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 10,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -21,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,6000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -3,1340 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 12,0071 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,4812 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,5585 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0820 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1847 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4071 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4176 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,7823 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22951
API ID
15361651
Gamdom ID
594500
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 2
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22951,
"api_id": 15361651,
"gamdom_id": 594500,
"player1": "Elvina Kalieva",
"player2": "Yexin MA",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 2",
"date": "2026-01-13T23:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8333333333333335,
"p2": 1.8333333333333335
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.85,
"p2": 2.01
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.77,
"p2": 1.97
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4347,
"prob_p2": 0.5653,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5653,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 207,
"utr_singles": 11.52,
"utr_ranking": 259,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 5,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 225,
"utr_singles": 11.6,
"utr_ranking": 217,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 3,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.52,
"ranking": 259,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.6,
"ranking": 217,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.40705882352941186,
"utr_p2": 0.4176470588235295,
"utr_diff": -0.08999999999999986,
"rank_ratio": 1.087378640776699,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 68.0,
"points_diff": 27,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 9.999999999999993,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
"p2_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
"utr_advantage": -0.782268578878747,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 9,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.08376988306545874,
"rank_advantage": 18,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": -6.666666666666657,
"bp_converted_diff": -21.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 5,
"p2_surface_matches": 3,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.280000000000001,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.6,
"combined_confidence": 0.3533333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.9000000000000057,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 12.007133777961235,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.481206365750614,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.5584658871030574,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.34920634920635,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.809523809523796,
"second_serve_won_diff": 7.900000000000006,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.6666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -3.1340000000000003,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08199999999999996,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18466666666666653,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.635978835978831,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}