Tereza Valentová vs Madison Keys
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 06:20
14 Ene 2026, 06:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Madison Keys
Tereza …: 35,0%
Madison …: 65,0%
¿Por qué Madison Keys?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tereza … | Madison … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,30 | 1,62 | 43,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,86 | 1,54 | 35,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tereza …: -6,3%
Madison …: +6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tereza Valentová
Ranking
#54
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
13/16 = 81,3%
Madison Keys
Ranking
#9
UTR Rating
12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -51,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1500 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,8971 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2967,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -50,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,2500 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,1296 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 81,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 72,2222 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,6250 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1,4950 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,4750 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,4625 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,1563 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,4688 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 40,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 17,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7273 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7788 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,8379 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,6765 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -11,8570 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3635 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1990 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5259 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5259 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22959
API ID
15328440
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22959,
"api_id": 15328440,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Tereza Valentov\u00e1",
"player2": "Madison Keys",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-14T02:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.62
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.19,
"p2": 1.66
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.35,
"prob_p2": 0.65,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.65,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 54,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 81.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 9,
"utr_singles": 12.5,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.5,
"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5258823529411766,
"utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.15,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -2967,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.4624999999999986,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 39.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 81.25,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -50,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.8971199848858813,
"rank_advantage": -51,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.25,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.15625,
"p1_surface_matches": 16,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.4950000000000045,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7272727272727273,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.46875,
"combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 4,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.625,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.837874424231739,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.676525477003092,
"surface_rank_synergy": -11.856999905536759,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 75.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.4750000000000014,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 17.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.36350000000000005,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.19899999999999995,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.1296296296296355,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}