Maya Joint vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 13:50
14 Ene 2026, 13:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maya Joint
Maya …: 54,4%
Ajla …: 45,6%
¿Por qué Maya Joint?
UTR 12,15 vs 12,26
(-0,05)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maya … | Ajla … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,20 | 59,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,81 | 2,06 | 55,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,84 | 2,19 | 54,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Maya …: -2,4%
Ajla …: +2,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maya Joint
Ranking
#31
UTR Rating
12,15 Pro
UTR Ranking
#68
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
29/47 = 61,7%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking
#78
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 44,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,3750 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,8650 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 639,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 9,8503 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,7128 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,7407 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 61,7021 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,8519 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,7843 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,6129 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 47,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2340 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,1707 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,0915 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,3021 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,9000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,6511 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,2671 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -15,1640 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 3,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,3053 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4054 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5288 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7778 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,3665 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,8865 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 8,5205 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0730 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0625 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 9,8503 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4918 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4976 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,4097 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22961
API ID
15328451
Gamdom ID
580611
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22961,
"api_id": 15328451,
"gamdom_id": 580611,
"player1": "Maya Joint",
"player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-14T09:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.81,
"p2": 2.06
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.84,
"p2": 1.94
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5442,
"prob_p2": 0.4558,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5442,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 12.15,
"utr_ranking": 68,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.702127659574465,
"wr_surface_wins": 29,
"wr_surface_total": 47,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 78,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 68,
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 54,
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}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.05000000000000071,
"rank_ratio": 2.375,
"h2h_matches": 3,
"momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": 639,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.9000000000000057,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -20.000000000000007,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9,
"surface_wr_p1": 61.702127659574465,
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"utr_advantage": -0.4096681687832914,
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"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.8649974374866045,
"rank_advantage": 44,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7777777777777778,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 9.850275807722618,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.6510638297872404,
"p1_surface_matches": 47,
"p2_surface_matches": 27,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.170661938534288,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.40540540540540543,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.2671394799054372,
"combined_confidence": 0.95,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.0914893617021306,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.19999999999999998,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.30528857068965204,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.23404255319148937,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.366522272882309,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.886480942019558,
"surface_rank_synergy": 8.520463332216357,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.78431372549019,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.30212765957447374,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.7407407407407407,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -15.164000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 9.850275807722618,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07302127659574464,
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"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.712839974699557,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}