Jason Kubler vs Vilius Gaubas
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 11:20
14 Ene 2026, 11:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jason Kubler
Jason …: 80,9%
Vilius …: 19,1%
¿Por qué Jason Kubler?
UTR 14,77 vs 14,46
(+0,28)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jason … | Vilius … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,53 | 2,38 | 65,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,55 | 2,48 | 64,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,24 | 5,25 | 80,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jason …: +20,2%
Vilius …: -20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jason Kubler
Ranking
#194
UTR Rating
14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#115
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
16/26 = 61,5%
Vilius Gaubas
Ranking
#129
UTR Rating
14,46 Pro
UTR Ranking
#182
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
4/10 = 40,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -63,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6719 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3977 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -164,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 65,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 21,5385 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 11,1429 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,6000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 61,5385 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 42,8571 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 10,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2308 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 21,0703 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 13,4000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 10,2600 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,6600 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 5,6462 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 3,6550 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,3190 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,6874 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -8,5655 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1784 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1630 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7941 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7612 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,9165 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22967
API ID
15361735
Gamdom ID
594611
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 2
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22967,
"api_id": 15361735,
"gamdom_id": 594611,
"player1": "Jason Kubler",
"player2": "Vilius Gaubas",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 2",
"date": "2026-01-14T07:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5333333333333332,
"p2": 2.375
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.55,
"p2": 2.48
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.52,
"p2": 2.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8094,
"prob_p2": 0.1906,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8094,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 194,
"utr_singles": 14.77,
"utr_ranking": 115,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 129,
"utr_singles": 14.46,
"utr_ranking": 182,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 40.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 10,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.77,
"ranking": 115,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.46,
"ranking": 182,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7941176470588235,
"utr_p2": 0.7611764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.27999999999999936,
"rank_ratio": 0.671875,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
"momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
"points_diff": -164,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.5,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 2.000000000000007,
"p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
"surface_wr_p1": 61.53846153846154,
"surface_wr_p2": 40.0,
"utr_advantage": 1.9164955509924666,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 65,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.39768296766610944,
"rank_advantage": -63,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 21.53846153846154,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.6600000000000037,
"p1_surface_matches": 26,
"p2_surface_matches": 10,
"serve_quality_diff": 21.0703076923077,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 5.646153846153846,
"combined_confidence": 0.65,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 13.399999999999991,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.23076923076923078,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.319048205999323,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.687382128667615,
"surface_rank_synergy": -8.565479303577742,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.857142857142854,
"second_serve_won_diff": 10.260000000000005,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.6,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 3.6550000000000153,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.17838461538461536,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.16299999999999992,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 11.142857142857146,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}