Maria Carle vs Yue Yuan
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 07:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maria Carle
Maria …: 56,9% Yue …: 43,1%
¿Por qué Maria Carle?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maria … Yue … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,40 1,30 29,4%
Gamdom 4,10 1,26 24,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,76 2,32 56,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Maria …: +29,2% Yue …: -29,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Carle
Ranking #158
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 7/15 = 46,7%
Yue Yuan
Ranking #130
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #95
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 8/25 = 32,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -28,0000
rank_ratio 0,8228
log_rank_ratio -0,1951
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -105,0000
best_rank_diff -35,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 14,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,5904
surface_matches_ratio 0,6000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 46,6667
surface_wr_p2 32,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 47,3684
surface_wr_p2_stable 34,4828
p1_surface_matches 15,0000
p2_surface_matches 25,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0667
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5000
p2_confidence 0,8333
combined_confidence 0,6667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,8335
first_serve_won_diff -7,0000
second_serve_won_diff 6,0440
bp_saved_diff -1,8760
bp_converted_diff 4,9000
aces_per_match_diff -1,5733
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff -6,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -5,8100
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3529
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7872
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,1667
serve_consistency_p1 13,0641
serve_consistency_p2 16,9631
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,8609
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0053
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2080
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,4753
utr_p2 0,4753
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22973
API ID 15361673
Gamdom ID 594566
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22973,
    "api_id": 15361673,
    "gamdom_id": 594566,
    "player1": "Maria Carle",
    "player2": "Yue Yuan",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-14T03:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.1,
      "p2": 1.26
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.84,
      "p2": 1.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.569,
    "prob_p2": 0.431,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.569,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 158,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 46.666666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 15,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 130,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 95,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 32.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 95,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4752941176470587,
    "utr_p2": 0.4752941176470587,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8227848101265823,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": -105,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.8760000000000048,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -5.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 46.666666666666664,
    "surface_wr_p2": 32.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -35,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.1950605825713843,
    "rank_advantage": -28,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.16666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 14.666666666666664,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.899999999999999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 15,
    "p2_surface_matches": 25,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.833466666666666,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.35294117647058826,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7872340425531915,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.5733333333333333,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.06666666666666667,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.064120817206385,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 16.963078162917412,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.8608885443803027,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 47.368421052631575,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 34.48275862068966,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.043999999999997,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -5.810000000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.005333333333333357,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.20800000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.59044162129461,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}