Maria Carle vs Yue Yuan
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 07:35
14 Ene 2026, 07:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maria Carle
Maria …: 56,9%
Yue …: 43,1%
¿Por qué Maria Carle?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maria … | Yue … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,40 | 1,30 | 29,4% |
| Gamdom | 4,10 | 1,26 | 24,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,76 | 2,32 | 56,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Maria …: +29,2%
Yue …: -29,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Carle
Ranking
#158
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
7/15 = 46,7%
Yue Yuan
Ranking
#130
UTR Rating
12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#95
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
8/25 = 32,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -28,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8228 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,1951 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -105,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -35,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 14,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,5904 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 46,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 47,3684 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 34,4828 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 15,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,8335 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 6,0440 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,8760 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,9000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,5733 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -6,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -5,8100 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,3529 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7872 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,1667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,0641 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 16,9631 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,8609 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0053 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2080 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4753 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4753 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22973
API ID
15361673
Gamdom ID
594566
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 2
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22973,
"api_id": 15361673,
"gamdom_id": 594566,
"player1": "Maria Carle",
"player2": "Yue Yuan",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 2",
"date": "2026-01-14T03:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.1,
"p2": 1.26
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.84,
"p2": 1.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.569,
"prob_p2": 0.431,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.569,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 158,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 46.666666666666664,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 15,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 130,
"utr_singles": 12.04,
"utr_ranking": 95,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 32.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.04,
"ranking": 95,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.4752941176470587,
"utr_p2": 0.4752941176470587,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.8227848101265823,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
"momentum_p2": 68.0,
"points_diff": -105,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.8760000000000048,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -5.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.5,
"p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 46.666666666666664,
"surface_wr_p2": 32.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -35,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.1950605825713843,
"rank_advantage": -28,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.16666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -3,
"surface_wr_diff": 14.666666666666664,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.899999999999999,
"p1_surface_matches": 15,
"p2_surface_matches": 25,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.833466666666666,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.35294117647058826,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7872340425531915,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.5733333333333333,
"combined_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.06666666666666667,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.064120817206385,
"serve_consistency_p2": 16.963078162917412,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.8608885443803027,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 47.368421052631575,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 34.48275862068966,
"second_serve_won_diff": 6.043999999999997,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -5.810000000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.005333333333333357,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.20800000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.59044162129461,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}