Himeno Sakatsume vs Mai Hontama
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Round 2
14 Ene 2026, 10:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Himeno Sakatsume
Himeno …: 74,9% Mai …: 25,1%
¿Por qué Himeno Sakatsume?
UTR 12,04 vs 11,38 (+0,30) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Himeno … Mai … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,03 17,00 97,6%
Gamdom 1,32 3,55 75,8%
IA Fair Odds 1,34 3,98 74,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Himeno …: -19,4% Mai …: +19,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Himeno Sakatsume
Ranking #140
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #94
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 4/7 = 57,1%
Mai Hontama
Ranking #244
UTR Rating 11,38 Pro
UTR Ranking #312
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 7/16 = 43,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 102,0000
rank_ratio 1,7286
log_rank_ratio 0,5473
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 215,0000
best_rank_diff -46,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 13,3929
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,7838
surface_matches_ratio 0,4375
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 57,1429
surface_wr_p2 43,7500
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,3247
surface_wr_p2_stable 45,0000
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 16,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 0,5333
combined_confidence 0,4633
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 7,2164
first_serve_won_diff 10,6000
second_serve_won_diff -7,6000
bp_saved_diff -10,9000
bp_converted_diff 1,3000
aces_per_match_diff 2,0982
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 7,3500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 7,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 8,3555
serve_consistency_p2 5,3332
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 7,3298
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0306
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0395
elite_surface_amplifier 13,3929
UTR
utr_diff 0,3000
utr_p1 0,4400
utr_p2 0,4047
utr_advantage 2,5884
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22975
API ID 15361871
Gamdom ID 595236
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 2
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22975,
    "api_id": 15361871,
    "gamdom_id": 595236,
    "player1": "Himeno Sakatsume",
    "player2": "Mai Hontama",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 2",
    "date": "2026-01-14T06:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.025,
      "p2": 17.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.32,
      "p2": 3.55
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.29,
      "p2": 3.45
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7487,
    "prob_p2": 0.2513,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7487,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 140,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 94,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 244,
      "utr_singles": 11.38,
      "utr_ranking": 312,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 43.75,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 94,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.38,
      "ranking": 312,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.44,
    "utr_p2": 0.40470588235294114,
    "utr_diff": 0.3000000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 1.7285714285714286,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 215,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -10.899999999999999,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 7,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 9.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2": 43.75,
    "utr_advantage": 2.588438308886978,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -46,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.5472953035473821,
    "rank_advantage": 102,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 13.392857142857139,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.3000000000000043,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 16,
    "serve_quality_diff": 7.216428571428565,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.0982142857142856,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4633333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 10.599999999999994,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.355532441914443,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.3332288544641155,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 7.329847815366723,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 45.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.600000000000001,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.4375,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 7.3500000000000085,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 13.392857142857139,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.030571428571428583,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03949999999999998,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.783766233766231,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}