Diana Shnaider vs Katerina Siniakova
Adelaide | Hard | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 08:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Katerina Siniakova
Diana …: 33,4% Katerina …: 66,6%
¿Por qué Katerina Siniakova?
UTR 12,43 vs 12,46 (-0,16) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Diana … Katerina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,30 61,7%
Gamdom 1,63 2,35 61,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,99 1,50 33,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Diana …: -25,2% Katerina …: +25,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Diana Shnaider
Ranking #22
UTR Rating 12,43 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 16/31 = 51,6%
Katerina Siniakova
Ranking #45
UTR Rating 12,46 Pro
UTR Ranking #26
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 21/33 = 63,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 23,0000
rank_ratio 2,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,6931
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 646,0000
best_rank_diff 16,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -12,0235
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -10,7336
surface_matches_ratio 0,9394
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 51,6129
surface_wr_p2 63,6364
surface_wr_p1_stable 51,4286
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,1622
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0323
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,5239
first_serve_won_diff -1,0576
second_serve_won_diff -1,6000
bp_saved_diff -1,6909
bp_converted_diff 0,7121
aces_per_match_diff 0,2424
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 5,7150
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,3858
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8855
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6852
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4375
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 9,8550
serve_consistency_p2 7,8915
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -8,3340
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0069
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1594
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1600
utr_p1 0,5094
utr_p2 0,5282
utr_advantage -1,2893
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22981
API ID 15328449
Gamdom ID 580618
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22981,
    "api_id": 15328449,
    "gamdom_id": 580618,
    "player1": "Diana Shnaider",
    "player2": "Katerina Siniakova",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-14T04:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.63,
      "p2": 2.35
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.6,
      "p2": 2.3
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3344,
    "prob_p2": 0.6656,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6656,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 22,
      "utr_singles": 12.43,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.61290322580645,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 45,
      "utr_singles": 12.46,
      "utr_ranking": 26,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.63636363636363,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 26,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5282352941176471,
    "utr_diff": -0.16000000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 2.0,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": 646,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.6909090909090807,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 51.61290322580645,
    "surface_wr_p2": 63.63636363636363,
    "utr_advantage": -1.2892828364222413,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 16,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.6931471805599453,
    "rank_advantage": 23,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -12.023460410557185,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.712121212121211,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.5239393939394006,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8854961832061069,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6851851851851852,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.24242424242424243,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.0575757575757692,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.3857863287983446,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.03225806451612903,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.855036736764484,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.891500802901589,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -8.334027684151835,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.42857142857142,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.16216216216216,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.6000000000000014,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9393939393939394,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 5.715000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.006870967741935519,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15936363636363637,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.733590733590738,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}