Stefan Palosi vs Lautaro Midon
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 21:25
14 Ene 2026, 21:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lautaro Midon
Stefan …: 27,4%
Lautaro …: 72,6%
¿Por qué Lautaro Midon?
UTR 13,73 vs 14,14
(-0,43)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Stefan … | Lautaro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,75 | 1,40 | 36,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,65 | 1,38 | 27,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Stefan …: -6,4%
Lautaro …: +6,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefan Palosi
Ranking
#484
UTR Rating
13,73 Pro
UTR Ranking
#535
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (5p)
WR Clay
4/7 = 57,1%
Lautaro Midon
Ranking
#232
UTR Rating
14,14 Pro
UTR Ranking
#311
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
43% (7p)
WR Clay
24/40 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -266,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4680 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,7593 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -243,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -269,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -2,8571 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,6238 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,1750 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 55,3247 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 59,0909 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6967 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,7914 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,6000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 11,9000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 5,6000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -13,3000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,2607 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 32,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 23,5200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,7984 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 2,1526 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 2,1694 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3374 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1660 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6706 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7212 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,0902 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
22996
API ID
15327995
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 22996,
"api_id": 15327995,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Stefan Palosi",
"player2": "Lautaro Midon",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-14T17:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.7,
"p2": 1.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2736,
"prob_p2": 0.7264,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7264,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 484,
"utr_singles": 13.73,
"utr_ranking": 535,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 232,
"utr_singles": 14.14,
"utr_ranking": 311,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 42.857142857142854,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 7
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.73,
"ranking": 535,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.14,
"ranking": 311,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7211764705882354,
"utr_diff": -0.4300000000000015,
"rank_ratio": 0.468,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
"points_diff": -243,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 5.600000000000001,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 31.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
"utr_advantage": -3.090190441969109,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -269,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.7592869830644903,
"rank_advantage": -266,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": -2.857142857142861,
"bp_converted_diff": -13.300000000000004,
"p1_surface_matches": 7,
"p2_surface_matches": 40,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.791428571428568,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.2607142857142857,
"combined_confidence": 0.6966666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.6000000000000085,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.798420173548225,
"serve_consistency_p2": 2.1526469250562723,
"surface_rank_synergy": 2.169391380184261,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.32467532467532,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.09090909090909,
"second_serve_won_diff": 11.899999999999999,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.175,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 23.519999999999996,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3374285714285714,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.16600000000000004,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.6238095238095296,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}