Stefan Palosi vs Lautaro Midon
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Round of 16
14 Ene 2026, 21:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lautaro Midon
Stefan …: 27,4% Lautaro …: 72,6%
¿Por qué Lautaro Midon?
UTR 13,73 vs 14,14 (-0,43) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Stefan … Lautaro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,40 36,4%
IA Fair Odds 3,65 1,38 27,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Stefan …: -6,4% Lautaro …: +6,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefan Palosi
Ranking #484
UTR Rating 13,73 Pro
UTR Ranking #535
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (5p)
WR Clay 4/7 = 57,1%
Lautaro Midon
Ranking #232
UTR Rating 14,14 Pro
UTR Ranking #311
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 43% (7p)
WR Clay 24/40 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -266,0000
rank_ratio 0,4680
log_rank_ratio -0,7593
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -243,0000
best_rank_diff -269,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -2,8571
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,6238
surface_matches_ratio 0,1750
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 57,1429
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,3247
surface_wr_p2_stable 59,0909
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 40,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,6967
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,7914
first_serve_won_diff -2,6000
second_serve_won_diff 11,9000
bp_saved_diff 5,6000
bp_converted_diff -13,3000
aces_per_match_diff 1,2607
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff 32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 23,5200
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 11,7984
serve_consistency_p2 2,1526
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,1694
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3374
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1660
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4300
utr_p1 0,6706
utr_p2 0,7212
utr_advantage -3,0902
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 22996
API ID 15327995
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 22996,
    "api_id": 15327995,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Stefan Palosi",
    "player2": "Lautaro Midon",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-14T17:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.7,
      "p2": 1.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2736,
    "prob_p2": 0.7264,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7264,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 484,
      "utr_singles": 13.73,
      "utr_ranking": 535,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 232,
      "utr_singles": 14.14,
      "utr_ranking": 311,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 42.857142857142854,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.73,
      "ranking": 535,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.14,
      "ranking": 311,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6705882352941176,
    "utr_p2": 0.7211764705882354,
    "utr_diff": -0.4300000000000015,
    "rank_ratio": 0.468,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -243,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.600000000000001,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 31.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": -3.090190441969109,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -269,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.7592869830644903,
    "rank_advantage": -266,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -2.857142857142861,
    "bp_converted_diff": -13.300000000000004,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 40,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.791428571428568,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.2607142857142857,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6966666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.6000000000000085,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.798420173548225,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 2.1526469250562723,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.169391380184261,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.09090909090909,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 11.899999999999999,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.175,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 23.519999999999996,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3374285714285714,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.16600000000000004,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.6238095238095296,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}