Luciano Darderi vs Marcos Giron
Auckland | Hard | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 03:15
15 Ene 2026, 03:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marcos Giron
Luciano …: 46,7%
Marcos …: 53,3%
¿Por qué Marcos Giron?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,30
(-0,20)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Luciano … | Marcos … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,95 | 1,41 | 33,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,14 | 1,88 | 46,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Luciano …: +14,9%
Marcos …: -14,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luciano Darderi
Ranking
#25
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#80
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
6/20 = 30,0%
Marcos Giron
Ranking
#51
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
12/28 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 36,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,5000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,9163 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 684,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 13,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -12,8571 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,3333 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7143 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 43,7500 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,4000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,6181 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,4107 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,7671 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,0421 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 9,9657 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,3214 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -40,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -35,2950 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7658 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9215 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,9715 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,6963 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -11,7809 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2360 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0354 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -12,8571 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,3115 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23029
API ID
15327191
Gamdom ID
579410
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23029,
"api_id": 15327191,
"gamdom_id": 579410,
"player1": "Luciano Darderi",
"player2": "Marcos Giron",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-14T23:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.95,
"p2": 1.41
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.92,
"p2": 1.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4667,
"prob_p2": 0.5333,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5333,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 25,
"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 80,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 30.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 51,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.11,
"ranking": 80,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.3,
"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8647058823529411,
"utr_diff": -0.1999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 2.5,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": 684,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.042142857142856,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 6,
"momentum_diff": -40.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 30.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": -1.3114754098360608,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 13,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.9162907318741551,
"rank_advantage": 36,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -5,
"surface_wr_diff": -12.857142857142854,
"bp_converted_diff": 9.965714285714284,
"p1_surface_matches": 20,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.61807142857144,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7657657657657657,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9214659685863874,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.3214285714285712,
"combined_confidence": 0.8,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.4107142857142918,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.4,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.971533991062527,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.696321304192652,
"surface_rank_synergy": -11.780880838381991,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.75,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.7671428571428578,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -35.295,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -12.857142857142854,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.23600000000000004,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.03542857142857142,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.333333333333337,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}