Luciano Darderi vs Marcos Giron
Auckland | Hard | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 03:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marcos Giron
Luciano …: 46,7% Marcos …: 53,3%
¿Por qué Marcos Giron?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,30 (-0,20) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Luciano … Marcos … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
Gamdom 2,95 1,41 33,9%
IA Fair Odds 2,14 1,88 46,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Luciano …: +14,9% Marcos …: -14,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luciano Darderi
Ranking #25
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #80
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 6/20 = 30,0%
Marcos Giron
Ranking #51
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 12/28 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 36,0000
rank_ratio 2,5000
log_rank_ratio 0,9163
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 684,0000
best_rank_diff 13,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -12,8571
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,3333
surface_matches_ratio 0,7143
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 30,0000
surface_wr_p2 42,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 33,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 43,7500
p1_surface_matches 20,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,4000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6667
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,8000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,6181
first_serve_won_diff 0,4107
second_serve_won_diff -0,7671
bp_saved_diff -5,0421
bp_converted_diff 9,9657
aces_per_match_diff 1,3214
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -40,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -35,2950
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff -5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7658
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9215
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 8,9715
serve_consistency_p2 4,6963
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -11,7809
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2360
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0354
elite_surface_amplifier -12,8571
UTR
utr_diff -0,2000
utr_p1 0,8412
utr_p2 0,8647
utr_advantage -1,3115
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23029
API ID 15327191
Gamdom ID 579410
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23029,
    "api_id": 15327191,
    "gamdom_id": 579410,
    "player1": "Luciano Darderi",
    "player2": "Marcos Giron",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-14T23:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.95,
      "p2": 1.41
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.92,
      "p2": 1.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4667,
    "prob_p2": 0.5333,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5333,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 25,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 80,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 30.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 51,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 80,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8411764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.8647058823529411,
    "utr_diff": -0.1999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 2.5,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 684,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.042142857142856,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": -40.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 30.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": -1.3114754098360608,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 13,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.9162907318741551,
    "rank_advantage": 36,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_diff": -12.857142857142854,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.965714285714284,
    "p1_surface_matches": 20,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.61807142857144,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7657657657657657,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9214659685863874,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.3214285714285712,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.4107142857142918,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.4,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.971533991062527,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.696321304192652,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -11.780880838381991,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.75,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.7671428571428578,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -35.295,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -12.857142857142854,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.23600000000000004,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.03542857142857142,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.333333333333337,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}