Ben Shelton vs Sebastián Báez
Auckland | Hard | Quarterfinals
16 Ene 2026, 03:20
16 Ene 2026, 03:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ben Shelton
Ben …: 83,5%
Sebastián …: 16,5%
¿Por qué Ben Shelton?
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Ben … | Sebastián … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,28 | 3,75 | 78,1% |
| Gamdom | 1,23 | 4,30 | 81,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,20 | 6,06 | 83,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Ben …: +9,0%
Sebastián …: -9,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ben Shelton
Ranking
#7
UTR Rating
15,65 Pro
UTR Ranking
#14
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
27/42 = 64,3%
Sebastián Báez
Ranking
#36
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
3/14 = 21,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 31,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,8750 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,5841 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 2710,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 13,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 26,2142 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 21,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,0435 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 27,7778 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7433 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 21,6262 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,3286 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 6,3810 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 14,3429 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,2238 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 8,5238 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,8000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -60,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -29,4000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9777 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5441 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5517 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,1643 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,8034 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 67,8909 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1119 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2547 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 85,7143 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9082 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9082 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23030
API ID
15327187
Gamdom ID
579403
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23030,
"api_id": 15327187,
"gamdom_id": 579403,
"player1": "Ben Shelton",
"player2": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-15T23:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.28,
"p2": 3.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.23,
"p2": 4.3
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.89
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8351,
"prob_p2": 0.1649,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8351,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 7,
"utr_singles": 15.65,
"utr_ranking": 14,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 36,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.65,
"ranking": 14,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9082352941176471,
"utr_p2": 0.9082352941176471,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 4.875,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 2710,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 14.342857142857135,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.8,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -59.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 21.428571428571427,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 13,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.5841201044498106,
"rank_advantage": 31,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5517241379310345,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -4,
"surface_wr_diff": 42.85714285714286,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.223809523809521,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": 21.626190476190473,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9776536312849162,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5441176470588235,
"aces_per_match_diff": 8.523809523809524,
"combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.328571428571422,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.164308442378173,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.8033834432630504,
"surface_rank_synergy": 67.8908616192776,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.04347826086957,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 27.77777777777778,
"second_serve_won_diff": 6.38095238095238,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -29.39999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 85.71428571428572,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11185714285714288,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.25471428571428567,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 26.214170692431566,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}