Ben Shelton vs Sebastián Báez
Auckland | Hard | Quarterfinals
16 Ene 2026, 03:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ben Shelton
Ben …: 83,5% Sebastián …: 16,5%
¿Por qué Ben Shelton?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ben … Sebastián … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,28 3,75 78,1%
Gamdom 1,23 4,30 81,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,20 6,06 83,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Ben …: +9,0% Sebastián …: -9,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ben Shelton
Ranking #7
UTR Rating 15,65 Pro
UTR Ranking #14
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 27/42 = 64,3%
Sebastián Báez
Ranking #36
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 3/14 = 21,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 31,0000
rank_ratio 4,8750
log_rank_ratio 1,5841
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 2710,0000
best_rank_diff 13,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 42,8571
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 26,2142
surface_matches_ratio 3,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,2857
surface_wr_p2 21,4286
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,0435
surface_wr_p2_stable 27,7778
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2857
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,7433
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 21,6262
first_serve_won_diff 5,3286
second_serve_won_diff 6,3810
bp_saved_diff 14,3429
bp_converted_diff -4,2238
aces_per_match_diff 8,5238
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,8000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -60,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -29,4000
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -4,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9777
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5441
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5517
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 4,1643
serve_consistency_p2 4,8034
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 67,8909
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1119
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2547
elite_surface_amplifier 85,7143
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,9082
utr_p2 0,9082
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23030
API ID 15327187
Gamdom ID 579403
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23030,
    "api_id": 15327187,
    "gamdom_id": 579403,
    "player1": "Ben Shelton",
    "player2": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-15T23:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.23,
      "p2": 4.3
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.89
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8351,
    "prob_p2": 0.1649,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8351,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 7,
      "utr_singles": 15.65,
      "utr_ranking": 14,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 36,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.65,
      "ranking": 14,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9082352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.9082352941176471,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 4.875,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 2710,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 14.342857142857135,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.8,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -59.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
    "surface_wr_p2": 21.428571428571427,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 13,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.5841201044498106,
    "rank_advantage": 31,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5517241379310345,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -4,
    "surface_wr_diff": 42.85714285714286,
    "bp_converted_diff": -4.223809523809521,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": 21.626190476190473,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9776536312849162,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5441176470588235,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 8.523809523809524,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7433333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 5.328571428571422,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.164308442378173,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.8033834432630504,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 67.8908616192776,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.04347826086957,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 27.77777777777778,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.38095238095238,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -29.39999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 85.71428571428572,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11185714285714288,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.25471428571428567,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 26.214170692431566,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}