Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales vs Elvina Kalieva
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Final
15 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elvina Kalieva
Guiomar …: 39,4% Elvina …: 60,6%
¿Por qué Elvina Kalieva?
UTR 11,63 vs 11,52 (+0,17) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Guiomar … Elvina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,73 50,0%
Gamdom 2,31 1,65 43,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,54 1,65 39,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Guiomar …: -6,9% Elvina …: +6,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales
Ranking #185
UTR Rating 11,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #204
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 1/3 = 33,3%
Elvina Kalieva
Ranking #207
UTR Rating 11,52 Pro
UTR Ranking #259
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 3/5 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 22,0000
rank_ratio 1,1196
log_rank_ratio 0,1129
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 34,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -26,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,7569
surface_matches_ratio 0,6000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 34,3956
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,3492
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 5,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 0,3667
combined_confidence 0,3533
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -14,8367
first_serve_won_diff -16,2000
second_serve_won_diff -10,9000
bp_saved_diff -17,2000
bp_converted_diff 35,7000
aces_per_match_diff -1,7333
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -2,4040
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 3,5377
serve_consistency_p2 4,6425
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -3,0117
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1887
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1220
elite_surface_amplifier -26,6667
UTR
utr_diff 0,1700
utr_p1 0,4271
utr_p2 0,4071
utr_advantage 1,4725
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23035
API ID 15365933
Gamdom ID 597646
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23035,
    "api_id": 15365933,
    "gamdom_id": 597646,
    "player1": "Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales",
    "player2": "Elvina Kalieva",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-15T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.7272727272727273
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.31,
      "p2": 1.65
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.22,
      "p2": 1.63
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3944,
    "prob_p2": 0.6056,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6056,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 185,
      "utr_singles": 11.63,
      "utr_ranking": 204,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 207,
      "utr_singles": 11.52,
      "utr_ranking": 259,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.63,
      "ranking": 204,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.52,
      "ranking": 259,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4270588235294119,
    "utr_p2": 0.40705882352941186,
    "utr_diff": 0.16999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1195652173913044,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 34,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -17.199999999999996,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.472498917280207,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.11294041118059554,
    "rank_advantage": 22,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -26.66666666666667,
    "bp_converted_diff": 35.7,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 5,
    "serve_quality_diff": -14.836666666666666,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.7333333333333334,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3533333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -16.199999999999996,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.537749094479445,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.6424650342868725,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -3.011744298149215,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.395604395604394,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.34920634920635,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -10.900000000000006,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.4039999999999964,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -26.66666666666667,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.18866666666666676,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.122,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.756939356939355,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}