Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales vs Elvina Kalieva
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Final
15 Ene 2026, 04:00
15 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elvina Kalieva
Guiomar …: 39,4%
Elvina …: 60,6%
¿Por qué Elvina Kalieva?
UTR 11,63 vs 11,52
(+0,17)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Guiomar … | Elvina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,00 | 1,73 | 50,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,31 | 1,65 | 43,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,54 | 1,65 | 39,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Guiomar …: -6,9%
Elvina …: +6,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales
Ranking
#185
UTR Rating
11,63 Pro
UTR Ranking
#204
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
1/3 = 33,3%
Elvina Kalieva
Ranking
#207
UTR Rating
11,52 Pro
UTR Ranking
#259
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
3/5 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 22,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,1196 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,1129 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 34,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -26,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,7569 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 34,3956 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 56,3492 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 3,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 5,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3400 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3533 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -14,8367 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -16,2000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -10,9000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -17,2000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 35,7000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,7333 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,4040 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,5377 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,6425 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -3,0117 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1887 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1220 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -26,6667 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4271 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4071 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,4725 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23035
API ID
15365933
Gamdom ID
597646
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23035,
"api_id": 15365933,
"gamdom_id": 597646,
"player1": "Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales",
"player2": "Elvina Kalieva",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Final",
"date": "2026-01-15T00:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.7272727272727273
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.31,
"p2": 1.65
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.22,
"p2": 1.63
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3944,
"prob_p2": 0.6056,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6056,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 185,
"utr_singles": 11.63,
"utr_ranking": 204,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 1,
"wr_surface_total": 3,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 207,
"utr_singles": 11.52,
"utr_ranking": 259,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 5,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.63,
"ranking": 204,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.52,
"ranking": 259,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.40705882352941186,
"utr_diff": 0.16999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 1.1195652173913044,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 72.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": 34,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -17.199999999999996,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -8.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"p2_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
"surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
"utr_advantage": 1.472498917280207,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.11294041118059554,
"rank_advantage": 22,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -26.66666666666667,
"bp_converted_diff": 35.7,
"p1_surface_matches": 3,
"p2_surface_matches": 5,
"serve_quality_diff": -14.836666666666666,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.7333333333333334,
"combined_confidence": 0.3533333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -16.199999999999996,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.537749094479445,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.6424650342868725,
"surface_rank_synergy": -3.011744298149215,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.395604395604394,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.34920634920635,
"second_serve_won_diff": -10.900000000000006,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.4039999999999964,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -26.66666666666667,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.18866666666666676,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.122,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.756939356939355,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}