Aleksandar Vukic vs Tommy Paul
Adelaide | Hard | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 10:10
15 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Aleksandar …: 21,8%
Tommy …: 78,2%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 14,77 vs 15,63
(-0,97)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aleksandar … | Tommy … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,59 | 1,28 | 21,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aleksandar …: -10,0%
Tommy …: +10,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aleksandar Vukic
Ranking
#78
UTR Rating
14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#112
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
19/43 = 44,2%
Tommy Paul
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking
#15
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/23 = 69,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -66,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2414 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,4214 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1307,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -40,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -25,3792 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -19,4208 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,8696 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 44,1860 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 69,5652 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 44,6809 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66,6667 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1163 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 1,6069 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,0776 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,1414 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,1529 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,7367 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,0940 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 48,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 24,3150 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1014 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1093 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2609 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4167 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,3566 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,6096 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 36,0736 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0079 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1297 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,9700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7988 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9129 | |
| utr_advantage | -6,3502 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23040
API ID
15327345
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23040,
"api_id": 15327345,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Aleksandar Vukic",
"player2": "Tommy Paul",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-15T06:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.98,
"p2": 1.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2177,
"prob_p2": 0.7823,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7823,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 78,
"utr_singles": 14.77,
"utr_ranking": 112,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 44.18604651162791,
"wr_surface_wins": 19,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 15.63,
"utr_ranking": 15,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.77,
"ranking": 112,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.63,
"ranking": 15,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7988235294117646,
"utr_p2": 0.9129411764705883,
"utr_diff": -0.9700000000000006,
"rank_ratio": 0.2413793103448276,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": -1307,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.152881698685533,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 47.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 44.18604651162791,
"surface_wr_p2": 69.56521739130434,
"utr_advantage": -6.350245499181674,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -40,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.4213856809311607,
"rank_advantage": -66,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2608695652173913,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": -25.379170879676437,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.736703741152681,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": 1.6068857431749137,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1014492753623188,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1093247588424437,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.0940343781597583,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.0775530839231777,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.11627906976744186,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.35660072798035,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.609635723404539,
"surface_rank_synergy": 36.07359008227718,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.680851063829785,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.141354903943373,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.8695652173913044,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 24.314999999999998,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.007860465116279025,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1296521739130435,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -19.420803782505903,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}