Aleksandar Vukic vs Tommy Paul
Adelaide | Hard | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 10:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Aleksandar …: 21,8% Tommy …: 78,2%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 14,77 vs 15,63 (-0,97) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aleksandar … Tommy … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
IA Fair Odds 4,59 1,28 21,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Aleksandar …: -10,0% Tommy …: +10,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aleksandar Vukic
Ranking #78
UTR Rating 14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #112
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 19/43 = 44,2%
Tommy Paul
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/23 = 69,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -66,0000
rank_ratio 0,2414
log_rank_ratio -1,4214
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -1307,0000
best_rank_diff -40,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -25,3792
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -19,4208
surface_matches_ratio 1,8696
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 44,1860
surface_wr_p2 69,5652
surface_wr_p1_stable 44,6809
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1163
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,6069
first_serve_won_diff -2,0776
second_serve_won_diff -5,1414
bp_saved_diff 4,1529
bp_converted_diff -1,7367
aces_per_match_diff 2,0940
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 98,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 48,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 24,3150
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1014
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1093
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2609
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4167
serve_consistency_p1 8,3566
serve_consistency_p2 4,6096
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 36,0736
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0079
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1297
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,9700
utr_p1 0,7988
utr_p2 0,9129
utr_advantage -6,3502
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23040
API ID 15327345
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23040,
    "api_id": 15327345,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Aleksandar Vukic",
    "player2": "Tommy Paul",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-15T06:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.98,
      "p2": 1.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2177,
    "prob_p2": 0.7823,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7823,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 78,
      "utr_singles": 14.77,
      "utr_ranking": 112,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 44.18604651162791,
      "wr_surface_wins": 19,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 15.63,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.77,
      "ranking": 112,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.63,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7988235294117646,
    "utr_p2": 0.9129411764705883,
    "utr_diff": -0.9700000000000006,
    "rank_ratio": 0.2413793103448276,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 97.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": -1307,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.152881698685533,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 47.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 44.18604651162791,
    "surface_wr_p2": 69.56521739130434,
    "utr_advantage": -6.350245499181674,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -40,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.4213856809311607,
    "rank_advantage": -66,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2608695652173913,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": -25.379170879676437,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.736703741152681,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.6068857431749137,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1014492753623188,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1093247588424437,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.0940343781597583,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.0775530839231777,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.11627906976744186,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.35660072798035,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.609635723404539,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 36.07359008227718,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 44.680851063829785,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.141354903943373,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.8695652173913044,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 24.314999999999998,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.007860465116279025,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1296521739130435,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -19.420803782505903,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}