Ugo Humbert vs Alexander Shevchenko
Adelaide | Hard | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 10:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ugo Humbert
Ugo …: 86,2% Alexander …: 13,8%
¿Por qué Ugo Humbert?
UTR 15,43 vs 14,73 (+0,76) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ugo … Alexander … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,28 3,75 78,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,16 7,25 86,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Ugo …: +11,6% Alexander …: -11,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ugo Humbert
Ranking #33
UTR Rating 15,43 Pro
UTR Ranking #38
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 18/29 = 62,1%
Alexander Shevchenko
Ranking #97
UTR Rating 14,73 Pro
UTR Ranking #123
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 8/23 = 34,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 68,0000
rank_ratio 2,8889
log_rank_ratio 1,0609
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 758,0000
best_rank_diff 32,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 27,2864
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 20,4265
surface_matches_ratio 1,2609
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,0690
surface_wr_p2 34,7826
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,6061
surface_wr_p2_stable 37,0370
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2414
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 10,6287
first_serve_won_diff 6,1135
second_serve_won_diff 7,2087
bp_saved_diff 6,9057
bp_converted_diff 7,1960
aces_per_match_diff 2,7046
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff -26,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -3,6200
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7136
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3818
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4444
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4286
serve_consistency_p1 5,1262
serve_consistency_p2 9,1725
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 28,9473
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0527
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0842
elite_surface_amplifier 54,5727
UTR
utr_diff 0,7600
utr_p1 0,8765
utr_p2 0,7871
utr_advantage 5,0431
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23041
API ID 15327350
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23041,
    "api_id": 15327350,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Ugo Humbert",
    "player2": "Alexander Shevchenko",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-15T06:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 3.83
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.862,
    "prob_p2": 0.138,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.862,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 33,
      "utr_singles": 15.43,
      "utr_ranking": 38,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.06896551724138,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 97,
      "utr_singles": 14.73,
      "utr_ranking": 123,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 34.78260869565217,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.43,
      "ranking": 38,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.73,
      "ranking": 123,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.7870588235294117,
    "utr_diff": 0.7599999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 2.888888888888889,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 758,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.905697151424285,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -25.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.06896551724138,
    "surface_wr_p2": 34.78260869565217,
    "utr_advantage": 5.043132050431319,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 32,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.0608719606852626,
    "rank_advantage": 68,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.42857142857142855,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 27.28635682158921,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.195952023987999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": 10.628650674662673,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7135678391959799,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.38181818181818183,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.704647676161919,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.113493253373321,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2413793103448276,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.126236121841185,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.172450056536853,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 28.947330861277035,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.60606060606061,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.03703703703704,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.20869565217393,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2608695652173914,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -3.6199999999999903,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 54.57271364317842,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.05268965517241375,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08417391304347821,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 20.426487093153764,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}