Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys
Adelaide | Hard | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 07:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Madison Keys
Victoria …: 39,1% Madison …: 60,9%
¿Por qué Madison Keys?
UTR 12,62 vs 12,50 (+0,14) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Victoria … Madison … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
Gamdom 2,46 1,58 40,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,56 1,64 39,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Victoria …: -2,3% Madison …: +2,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Victoria Mboko
Ranking #16
UTR Rating 12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #13
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 20/26 = 76,9%
Madison Keys
Ranking #9
UTR Rating 12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -8,0000
rank_ratio 0,5294
log_rank_ratio -0,6360
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -1846,0000
best_rank_diff -13,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 1,9231
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,0370
surface_matches_ratio 0,8125
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 76,9231
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 73,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 72,2222
p1_surface_matches 26,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5385
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,1354
first_serve_won_diff 2,3923
second_serve_won_diff 2,1212
bp_saved_diff 4,6702
bp_converted_diff 8,3639
aces_per_match_diff 1,1514
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff 12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 5,6000
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3667
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7788
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 3,1648
serve_consistency_p2 4,3368
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,2231
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2772
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2420
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1400
utr_p1 0,5424
utr_p2 0,5259
utr_advantage 1,1164
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23043
API ID 15328446
Gamdom ID 580620
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23043,
    "api_id": 15328446,
    "gamdom_id": 580620,
    "player1": "Victoria Mboko",
    "player2": "Madison Keys",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-15T03:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.46,
      "p2": 1.58
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.36,
      "p2": 1.57
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3906,
    "prob_p2": 0.6094,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6094,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 16,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 13,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 76.92307692307693,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 9,
      "utr_singles": 12.5,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 13,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.5,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5423529411764705,
    "utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
    "utr_diff": 0.1399999999999988,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5294117647058824,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": -1846,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.670192307692311,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 76.92307692307693,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.1164274322168963,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -13,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.6359887667199967,
    "rank_advantage": -8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.125,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 1.923076923076934,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.363942307692312,
    "p1_surface_matches": 26,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.135384615384623,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.36666666666666664,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.1514423076923075,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.3923076923077105,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5384615384615384,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.1648259309110474,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.336766937103956,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.2230553206153854,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 73.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.1211538461538524,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 5.599999999999994,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2772307692307694,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.242,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.03703703703704,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}