Dusan Lajovic vs Francesco Maestrelli
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Final
15 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francesco Maestrelli
Dusan …: 27,3% Francesco …: 72,7%
¿Por qué Francesco Maestrelli?
UTR 14,39 vs 14,34 (+0,07) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Dusan … Francesco … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,20 61,9%
Gamdom 1,75 2,09 57,1%
IA Fair Odds 3,67 1,38 27,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Dusan …: -30,4% Francesco …: +30,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dusan Lajovic
Ranking #125
UTR Rating 14,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #206
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 6/17 = 35,3%
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking #141
UTR Rating 14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking #224
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 17/26 = 65,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 16,0000
rank_ratio 1,1280
log_rank_ratio 0,1204
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 61,0000
best_rank_diff 114,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -30,0905
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -18,0873
surface_matches_ratio 0,6538
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 35,2941
surface_wr_p2 65,3846
surface_wr_p1_stable 38,0952
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,3333
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2941
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,7167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -10,2226
first_serve_won_diff -8,5285
second_serve_won_diff -4,6878
bp_saved_diff -2,1326
bp_converted_diff -3,6769
aces_per_match_diff -2,2760
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -1,1940
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,6667
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7143
serve_consistency_p1 9,0485
serve_consistency_p2 11,3902
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -3,6243
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1631
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1698
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0700
utr_p1 0,7541
utr_p2 0,7459
utr_advantage 0,4870
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23049
API ID 15366370
Gamdom ID 597861
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23049,
    "api_id": 15366370,
    "gamdom_id": 597861,
    "player1": "Dusan Lajovic",
    "player2": "Francesco Maestrelli",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-15T02:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6153846153846154,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.75,
      "p2": 2.09
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.06
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2728,
    "prob_p2": 0.7272,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7272,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 125,
      "utr_singles": 14.39,
      "utr_ranking": 206,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 35.294117647058826,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 141,
      "utr_singles": 14.34,
      "utr_ranking": 224,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.39,
      "ranking": 206,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.34,
      "ranking": 224,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7541176470588236,
    "utr_p2": 0.7458823529411764,
    "utr_diff": 0.07000000000000028,
    "rank_ratio": 1.128,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": 61,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.1325791855203704,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 35.294117647058826,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.38461538461539,
    "utr_advantage": 0.4869565217391324,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 114,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.12044615307586706,
    "rank_advantage": 16,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -30.09049773755656,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.6769230769230745,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": -10.222624434389132,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.6666666666666667,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.276018099547511,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -8.528506787330315,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.29411764705882354,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.048519729511096,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.390221833582098,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -3.624284696626769,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 38.095238095238095,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.687782805429862,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6538461538461539,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -1.1940000000000026,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.16305882352941176,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16984615384615387,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.087301587301585,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}