Dusan Lajovic vs Francesco Maestrelli
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Final
15 Ene 2026, 06:45
15 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francesco Maestrelli
Dusan …: 27,3%
Francesco …: 72,7%
¿Por qué Francesco Maestrelli?
UTR 14,39 vs 14,34
(+0,07)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Dusan … | Francesco … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,20 | 61,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,75 | 2,09 | 57,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,67 | 1,38 | 27,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Dusan …: -30,4%
Francesco …: +30,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dusan Lajovic
Ranking
#125
UTR Rating
14,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#206
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
6/17 = 35,3%
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking
#141
UTR Rating
14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking
#224
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
17/26 = 65,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 16,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,1280 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,1204 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 61,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 114,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -30,0905 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -18,0873 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6538 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 35,2941 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,3846 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 38,0952 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2941 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -10,2226 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -8,5285 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -4,6878 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,1326 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,6769 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,2760 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -1,1940 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,6667 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7143 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,0485 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,3902 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -3,6243 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1631 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1698 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7541 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7459 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,4870 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23049
API ID
15366370
Gamdom ID
597861
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23049,
"api_id": 15366370,
"gamdom_id": 597861,
"player1": "Dusan Lajovic",
"player2": "Francesco Maestrelli",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Final",
"date": "2026-01-15T02:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.6153846153846154,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.75,
"p2": 2.09
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 2.06
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2728,
"prob_p2": 0.7272,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7272,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 125,
"utr_singles": 14.39,
"utr_ranking": 206,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 35.294117647058826,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 141,
"utr_singles": 14.34,
"utr_ranking": 224,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.39,
"ranking": 206,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.34,
"ranking": 224,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7541176470588236,
"utr_p2": 0.7458823529411764,
"utr_diff": 0.07000000000000028,
"rank_ratio": 1.128,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": 61,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.1325791855203704,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 35.294117647058826,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.38461538461539,
"utr_advantage": 0.4869565217391324,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 114,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.12044615307586706,
"rank_advantage": 16,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -30.09049773755656,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.6769230769230745,
"p1_surface_matches": 17,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": -10.222624434389132,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.6666666666666667,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.276018099547511,
"combined_confidence": 0.7166666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -8.528506787330315,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.29411764705882354,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.048519729511096,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.390221833582098,
"surface_rank_synergy": -3.624284696626769,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 38.095238095238095,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": -4.687782805429862,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6538461538461539,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -1.1940000000000026,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.16305882352941176,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16984615384615387,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.087301587301585,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}