Rafael Jodar vs Luca Van Assche
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Final
15 Ene 2026, 06:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Rafael Jodar
Rafael …: 79,1% Luca …: 21,0%
¿Por qué Rafael Jodar?
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Rafael … Luca … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,00 73,3%
Gamdom 1,34 3,30 74,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,27 4,77 79,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Rafael …: +10,3% Luca …: -10,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Rafael Jodar
Ranking #150
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 75% (8p)
WR Hard 22/30 = 73,3%
Luca Van Assche
Ranking #165
UTR Rating 14,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #108
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 13/26 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 15,0000
rank_ratio 1,1000
log_rank_ratio 0,0953
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 66,0000
best_rank_diff -87,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 23,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 19,2157
surface_matches_ratio 1,1538
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 73,3333
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 70,5882
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4667
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,9333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,7224
first_serve_won_diff 2,0692
second_serve_won_diff 2,9423
bp_saved_diff 3,0077
bp_converted_diff 0,2269
aces_per_match_diff 0,4026
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 11,9100
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3750
serve_consistency_p1 8,7229
serve_consistency_p2 4,9390
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,2239
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2183
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0150
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,7918
utr_p2 0,7918
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23052
API ID 15366371
Gamdom ID 597877
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23052,
    "api_id": 15366371,
    "gamdom_id": 597877,
    "player1": "Rafael Jodar",
    "player2": "Luca Van Assche",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-15T02:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3636363636363638,
      "p2": 3.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.34,
      "p2": 3.3
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.2
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7905,
    "prob_p2": 0.2095,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7905,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 150,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 73.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 165,
      "utr_singles": 14.81,
      "utr_ranking": 108,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.81,
      "ranking": 108,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.791764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.791764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": 66,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.0076923076923094,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 73.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -87,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.09531017980432493,
    "rank_advantage": 15,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 23.33333333333333,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.22692307692307878,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.7224358974359006,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.4025641025641029,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.0692307692307708,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.4666666666666667,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.722927110235151,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.939043807987115,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.223904195434248,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 70.58823529411765,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.9423076923077005,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.1538461538461537,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 11.909999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21833333333333327,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.015000000000000013,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 19.21568627450981,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}