Elias Ymer vs Coleman Wong
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Final
15 Ene 2026, 06:30
15 Ene 2026, 06:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Elias …: 53,4%
Coleman …: 46,6%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elias … | Coleman … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,50 | 1,29 | 28,6% |
| Gamdom | 3,65 | 1,29 | 27,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,87 | 2,15 | 53,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elias …: +26,6%
Coleman …: -26,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elias Ymer
Ranking
#175
UTR Rating
14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking
#284
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Coleman Wong
Ranking
#132
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/38 = 57,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -43,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7543 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2820 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -119,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 23,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,3910 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 5,1786 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7368 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,8947 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,1429 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 38,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,3405 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0045 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,3387 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,6211 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,8380 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,8722 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -8,2200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1746 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5385 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7692 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,8699 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,9833 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,8022 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1859 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0359 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7224 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7224 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23053
API ID
15366379
Gamdom ID
597895
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23053,
"api_id": 15366379,
"gamdom_id": 597895,
"player1": "Elias Ymer",
"player2": "Coleman Wong",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Final",
"date": "2026-01-15T02:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.5,
"p2": 1.2857142857142856
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.65,
"p2": 1.29
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.49,
"p2": 1.29
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5345,
"prob_p2": 0.4655,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5345,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 175,
"utr_singles": 14.2,
"utr_ranking": 284,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 132,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.89473684210527,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 38,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.2,
"ranking": 284,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7223529411764706,
"utr_p2": 0.7223529411764706,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.7542857142857143,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 72.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": -119,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.621052631578948,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -8.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.89473684210527,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 23,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.2819840513371431,
"rank_advantage": -43,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7692307692307693,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.3909774436090245,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.837969924812022,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 38,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.340488721804498,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1746031746031746,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.872180451127819,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.004511278195508339,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.869915362006687,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.9832847699487415,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.8021537115531707,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.14285714285714,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.3387218045112803,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7368421052631579,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -8.219999999999985,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.18585714285714294,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03594736842105262,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.178571428571432,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}