Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Valentin Vacherot
Adelaide | Hard | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 13:40
15 Ene 2026, 13:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Valentin Vacherot
Alejandro …: 44,4%
Valentin …: 55,6%
¿Por qué Valentin Vacherot?
UTR 15,62 vs 15,59
(-0,06)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alejandro … | Valentin … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,30 | 61,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,25 | 1,80 | 44,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alejandro …: -14,3%
Valentin …: +14,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ranking
#14
UTR Rating
15,62 Pro
UTR Ranking
#16
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
29/46 = 63,0%
Valentin Vacherot
Ranking
#31
UTR Rating
15,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#16
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 17,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,1333 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,7577 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1116,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 16,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -2,5815 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -1,8889 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4375 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 63,0435 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,6250 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,8889 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2609 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,9006 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,9726 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,7795 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,1538 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,5330 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -4,9402 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -4,6850 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9104 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6538 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,6221 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,9494 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,9560 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1134 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1733 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -2,5815 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9118 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9188 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,3802 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23065
API ID
15327346
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23065,
"api_id": 15327346,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina",
"player2": "Valentin Vacherot",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-15T09:40:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.62,
"p2": 2.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.53,
"p2": 2.47
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4441,
"prob_p2": 0.5559,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5559,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 14,
"utr_singles": 15.62,
"utr_ranking": 16,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.04347826086957,
"wr_surface_wins": 29,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 31,
"utr_singles": 15.59,
"utr_ranking": 16,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.625,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.62,
"ranking": 16,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.59,
"ranking": 16,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9188235294117648,
"utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 2.1333333333333333,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 1116,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.1538043478260818,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 63.04347826086957,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
"utr_advantage": -0.3802281368821324,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 16,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.7576857016975165,
"rank_advantage": 17,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6538461538461539,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -2.58152173913043,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.533016304347825,
"p1_surface_matches": 46,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.900557065217392,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9104477611940298,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -4.940217391304348,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.97255434782609,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2608695652173913,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.622077446519668,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.949389796917403,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.9559821103604331,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.7794836956521678,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4375,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -4.685000000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -2.58152173913043,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11343478260869566,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17325000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.8888888888888857,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}