Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Valentin Vacherot
Adelaide | Hard | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 13:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Valentin Vacherot
Alejandro …: 44,4% Valentin …: 55,6%
¿Por qué Valentin Vacherot?
UTR 15,62 vs 15,59 (-0,06) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alejandro … Valentin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,30 61,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,25 1,80 44,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Alejandro …: -14,3% Valentin …: +14,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ranking #14
UTR Rating 15,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #16
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 29/46 = 63,0%
Valentin Vacherot
Ranking #31
UTR Rating 15,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #16
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 17,0000
rank_ratio 2,1333
log_rank_ratio 0,7577
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1116,0000
best_rank_diff 16,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -2,5815
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,8889
surface_matches_ratio 1,4375
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 63,0435
surface_wr_p2 65,6250
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8889
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2609
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,9006
first_serve_won_diff -4,9726
second_serve_won_diff -1,7795
bp_saved_diff -2,1538
bp_converted_diff 3,5330
aces_per_match_diff -4,9402
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -4,6850
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9104
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6538
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 7,6221
serve_consistency_p2 10,9494
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,9560
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1134
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1733
elite_surface_amplifier -2,5815
UTR
utr_diff -0,0600
utr_p1 0,9118
utr_p2 0,9188
utr_advantage -0,3802
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23065
API ID 15327346
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23065,
    "api_id": 15327346,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina",
    "player2": "Valentin Vacherot",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-15T09:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4441,
    "prob_p2": 0.5559,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5559,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 14,
      "utr_singles": 15.62,
      "utr_ranking": 16,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.04347826086957,
      "wr_surface_wins": 29,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 31,
      "utr_singles": 15.59,
      "utr_ranking": 16,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.625,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.62,
      "ranking": 16,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.59,
      "ranking": 16,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9117647058823529,
    "utr_p2": 0.9188235294117648,
    "utr_diff": -0.0600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 2.1333333333333333,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 1116,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.1538043478260818,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 63.04347826086957,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
    "utr_advantage": -0.3802281368821324,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 16,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.7576857016975165,
    "rank_advantage": 17,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6538461538461539,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -2.58152173913043,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.533016304347825,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.900557065217392,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9104477611940298,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -4.940217391304348,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.97255434782609,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2608695652173913,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.622077446519668,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.949389796917403,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.9559821103604331,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.7794836956521678,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4375,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -4.685000000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -2.58152173913043,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11343478260869566,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17325000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.8888888888888857,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}