Marina Bassols Ribera vs Himeno Sakatsume
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Final
15 Ene 2026, 08:15
15 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Himeno Sakatsume
Marina …: 25,0%
Himeno …: 75,1%
¿Por qué Himeno Sakatsume?
UTR 11,63 vs 12,04
(-0,22)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (36%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Marina … | Himeno … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,40 | 1,30 | 29,4% |
| Gamdom | 3,65 | 1,30 | 27,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 4,01 | 1,33 | 25,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Marina …: -2,7%
Himeno …: +2,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marina Bassols Ribera
Ranking
#238
UTR Rating
11,63 Pro
UTR Ranking
#205
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
0/2 = 0,0%
Himeno Sakatsume
Ranking
#140
UTR Rating
12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#94
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -96,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5932 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5222 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -209,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 46,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -9,2883 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,2857 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 29,5238 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,3247 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 2,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -1,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3267 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3600 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,2114 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -21,0500 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 12,9500 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -27,2000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -16,6000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,7857 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -0,2010 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -6,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,4078 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,6855 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 29,8394 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,4040 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0246 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4141 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4400 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,8917 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23079
API ID
15367519
Gamdom ID
599275
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23079,
"api_id": 15367519,
"gamdom_id": 599275,
"player1": "Marina Bassols Ribera",
"player2": "Himeno Sakatsume",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Final",
"date": "2026-01-15T04:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.65,
"p2": 1.3
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.45,
"p2": 1.29
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2495,
"prob_p2": 0.7505,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7505,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 238,
"utr_singles": 11.63,
"utr_ranking": 205,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 2,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 140,
"utr_singles": 12.04,
"utr_ranking": 94,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.63,
"ranking": 205,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.04,
"ranking": 94,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.4141176470588235,
"utr_p2": 0.44,
"utr_diff": -0.22000000000000064,
"rank_ratio": 0.5932203389830508,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": -209,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -27.200000000000003,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 8,
"momentum_diff": -2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
"utr_advantage": -1.8916595012897737,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 46,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5221893824163059,
"rank_advantage": -96,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -6,
"surface_wr_diff": -57.14285714285714,
"bp_converted_diff": -16.6,
"p1_surface_matches": 2,
"p2_surface_matches": 7,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.211428571428563,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.7857142857142856,
"combined_confidence": 0.36,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -21.049999999999997,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.407836469942821,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.685475902340969,
"surface_rank_synergy": 29.839393280931763,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 29.523809523809526,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
"second_serve_won_diff": 12.950000000000003,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -0.20100000000000762,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.404,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.024571428571428577,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -9.288311688311685,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}