Marina Bassols Ribera vs Himeno Sakatsume
Australian Open | Hard | Qualification Final
15 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Himeno Sakatsume
Marina …: 25,0% Himeno …: 75,1%
¿Por qué Himeno Sakatsume?
UTR 11,63 vs 12,04 (-0,22) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (36%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marina … Himeno … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,40 1,30 29,4%
Gamdom 3,65 1,30 27,4%
IA Fair Odds 4,01 1,33 25,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Marina …: -2,7% Himeno …: +2,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marina Bassols Ribera
Ranking #238
UTR Rating 11,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #205
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 0/2 = 0,0%
Himeno Sakatsume
Ranking #140
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #94
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -96,0000
rank_ratio 0,5932
log_rank_ratio -0,5222
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -209,0000
best_rank_diff 46,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -57,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -9,2883
surface_matches_ratio 0,2857
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 57,1429
surface_wr_p1_stable 29,5238
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,3247
p1_surface_matches 2,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3267
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,3600
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,2114
first_serve_won_diff -21,0500
second_serve_won_diff 12,9500
bp_saved_diff -27,2000
bp_converted_diff -16,6000
aces_per_match_diff -2,7857
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 78,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -0,2010
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 8,0000
match_load_diff -6,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 4,4078
serve_consistency_p2 5,6855
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 29,8394
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,4040
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0246
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2200
utr_p1 0,4141
utr_p2 0,4400
utr_advantage -1,8917
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23079
API ID 15367519
Gamdom ID 599275
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23079,
    "api_id": 15367519,
    "gamdom_id": 599275,
    "player1": "Marina Bassols Ribera",
    "player2": "Himeno Sakatsume",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-15T04:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.65,
      "p2": 1.3
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.45,
      "p2": 1.29
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2495,
    "prob_p2": 0.7505,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7505,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 238,
      "utr_singles": 11.63,
      "utr_ranking": 205,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 2,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 140,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 94,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.63,
      "ranking": 205,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 94,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4141176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.44,
    "utr_diff": -0.22000000000000064,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5932203389830508,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": -209,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -27.200000000000003,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 8,
    "momentum_diff": -2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
    "utr_advantage": -1.8916595012897737,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 46,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5221893824163059,
    "rank_advantage": -96,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -6,
    "surface_wr_diff": -57.14285714285714,
    "bp_converted_diff": -16.6,
    "p1_surface_matches": 2,
    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.211428571428563,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.7857142857142856,
    "combined_confidence": 0.36,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -21.049999999999997,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.407836469942821,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.685475902340969,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 29.839393280931763,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 29.523809523809526,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 12.950000000000003,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -0.20100000000000762,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.404,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.024571428571428577,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -9.288311688311685,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}