Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Agamenone
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 20:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Franco Agamenone
Juan …: 32,5% Franco …: 67,5%
¿Por qué Franco Agamenone?
UTR 13,79 vs 14,08 (-0,22) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Franco … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,62 45,5%
IA Fair Odds 3,08 1,48 32,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: -9,9% Franco …: +9,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Manuel La Serna
Ranking #412
UTR Rating 13,79 Pro
UTR Ranking #500
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 63% (8p)
WR Clay 8/17 = 47,1%
Franco Agamenone
Ranking #279
UTR Rating 14,08 Pro
UTR Ranking #345
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Clay 14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -98,0000
rank_ratio 0,7737
log_rank_ratio -0,2566
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -42,0000
best_rank_diff -320,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -4,7930
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,9288
surface_matches_ratio 0,6296
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 47,0588
surface_wr_p2 51,8519
surface_wr_p1_stable 47,6190
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,6129
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 27,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0588
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 0,9000
combined_confidence 0,7333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,5757
first_serve_won_diff -3,5000
second_serve_won_diff 1,3000
bp_saved_diff -3,3000
bp_converted_diff 13,6000
aces_per_match_diff -2,6078
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 78,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 6,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,1429
serve_consistency_p1 9,2373
serve_consistency_p2 10,1411
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,2299
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0686
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0795
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2200
utr_p1 0,6788
utr_p2 0,7047
utr_advantage -1,5850
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23084
API ID 15327996
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23084,
    "api_id": 15327996,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Juan Manuel La Serna",
    "player2": "Franco Agamenone",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-15T16:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.41,
      "p2": 1.53
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3248,
    "prob_p2": 0.6752,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6752,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 412,
      "utr_singles": 13.79,
      "utr_ranking": 500,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 47.05882352941176,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 62.5,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 279,
      "utr_singles": 14.08,
      "utr_ranking": 345,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.79,
      "ranking": 500,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.08,
      "ranking": 345,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6788235294117646,
    "utr_p2": 0.7047058823529412,
    "utr_diff": -0.22000000000000064,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7736720554272517,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 77.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -42,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.299999999999997,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 7.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9,
    "surface_wr_p1": 47.05882352941176,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
    "utr_advantage": -1.5850144092219065,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -320,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.25660719617742345,
    "rank_advantage": -98,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.14285714285714285,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -4.793028322440087,
    "bp_converted_diff": 13.600000000000001,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 27,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.575686274509799,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.6078431372549016,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.5,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.058823529411764705,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.237318116599344,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.141108309771647,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.2299255590203302,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 47.61904761904761,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.3000000000000043,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6296296296296297,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 6.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06858823529411756,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.07948148148148149,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.9288274449564793,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}