Juan Pablo Varillas vs Lautaro Midon
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 17:30
15 Ene 2026, 17:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Juan …: 62,3%
Lautaro …: 37,7%
¿Por qué Juan Pablo Varillas?
UTR 14,26 vs 14,14
(+0,14)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Juan … | Lautaro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,10 | 59,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,60 | 2,65 | 62,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Juan …: +6,6%
Lautaro …: -6,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Pablo Varillas
Ranking
#244
UTR Rating
14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#255
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Clay
23/37 = 62,2%
Lautaro Midon
Ranking
#232
UTR Rating
14,14 Pro
UTR Ranking
#311
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (8p)
WR Clay
24/40 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -19,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,9249 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,0781 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -30,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 171,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 2,1622 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 1,8847 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9250 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,1622 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,9756 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 59,0909 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2432 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,5211 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,6000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,3000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,6000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,6000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,5155 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 1,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,5344 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,3715 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,1688 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1406 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0810 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7376 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7212 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,9859 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23085
API ID
15328001
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23085,
"api_id": 15328001,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Juan Pablo Varillas",
"player2": "Lautaro Midon",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-01-15T13:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.76,
"p2": 1.99
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6233,
"prob_p2": 0.3767,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6233,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 244,
"utr_singles": 14.26,
"utr_ranking": 255,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 232,
"utr_singles": 14.14,
"utr_ranking": 311,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 8
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.26,
"ranking": 255,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.14,
"ranking": 311,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7376470588235293,
"utr_p2": 0.7211764705882354,
"utr_diff": 0.1399999999999988,
"rank_ratio": 0.924901185770751,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -30,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.6000000000000014,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.9859154929577381,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 171,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.07806837336981882,
"rank_advantage": -19,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 2.1621621621621614,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.599999999999994,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 40,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.521081081081078,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.5155405405405404,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.5999999999999943,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.534397653204396,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.371459265180949,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.16879648296177038,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.09090909090909,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.299999999999997,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.925,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 1.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14062162162162162,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08099999999999996,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.8847006651884683,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}