Juan Pablo Varillas vs Lautaro Midon
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Quarterfinals
15 Ene 2026, 17:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Juan …: 62,3% Lautaro …: 37,7%
¿Por qué Juan Pablo Varillas?
UTR 14,26 vs 14,14 (+0,14) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Juan … Lautaro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 59,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,60 2,65 62,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Juan …: +6,6% Lautaro …: -6,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Juan Pablo Varillas
Ranking #244
UTR Rating 14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #255
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Clay 23/37 = 62,2%
Lautaro Midon
Ranking #232
UTR Rating 14,14 Pro
UTR Ranking #311
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (8p)
WR Clay 24/40 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -19,0000
rank_ratio 0,9249
log_rank_ratio -0,0781
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -30,0000
best_rank_diff 171,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 2,1622
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,8847
surface_matches_ratio 0,9250
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,1622
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,9756
surface_wr_p2_stable 59,0909
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 40,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2432
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,5211
first_serve_won_diff 3,6000
second_serve_won_diff 2,3000
bp_saved_diff 1,6000
bp_converted_diff 5,6000
aces_per_match_diff 1,5155
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 78,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 1,5000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 7,5344
serve_consistency_p2 10,3715
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,1688
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1406
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0810
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1400
utr_p1 0,7376
utr_p2 0,7212
utr_advantage 0,9859
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23085
API ID 15328001
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23085,
    "api_id": 15328001,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Juan Pablo Varillas",
    "player2": "Lautaro Midon",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-01-15T13:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.76,
      "p2": 1.99
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6233,
    "prob_p2": 0.3767,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6233,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 244,
      "utr_singles": 14.26,
      "utr_ranking": 255,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 232,
      "utr_singles": 14.14,
      "utr_ranking": 311,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.26,
      "ranking": 255,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.14,
      "ranking": 311,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7376470588235293,
    "utr_p2": 0.7211764705882354,
    "utr_diff": 0.1399999999999988,
    "rank_ratio": 0.924901185770751,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -30,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.6000000000000014,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.9859154929577381,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 171,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.07806837336981882,
    "rank_advantage": -19,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 2.1621621621621614,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.599999999999994,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 40,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.521081081081078,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.5155405405405404,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.5999999999999943,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.534397653204396,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.371459265180949,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.16879648296177038,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.09090909090909,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.299999999999997,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.925,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 1.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14062162162162162,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08099999999999996,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.8847006651884683,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}