Tomas Machac vs Tommy Paul
Adelaide | Hard | Semifinals
16 Ene 2026, 06:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Tomas …: 36,2% Tommy …: 63,8%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 15,26 vs 15,63 (-0,36) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tomas … Tommy … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,76 1,57 36,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Tomas …: -5,1% Tommy …: +5,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tomas Machac
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #56
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 17/29 = 58,6%
Tommy Paul
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 16/23 = 69,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -14,0000
rank_ratio 0,6000
log_rank_ratio -0,5108
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -640,0000
best_rank_diff -12,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -10,9445
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,8788
surface_matches_ratio 1,2609
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 58,6207
surface_wr_p2 69,5652
surface_wr_p1_stable 57,5758
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 23,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1724
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,7667
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,5356
first_serve_won_diff -1,6631
second_serve_won_diff 2,9606
bp_saved_diff 2,9604
bp_converted_diff 3,6261
aces_per_match_diff -0,7961
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 90,0000
momentum_p2 72,0000
momentum_diff 18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 6,7600
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0582
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1093
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6429
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4167
serve_consistency_p1 8,9888
serve_consistency_p2 4,0145
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 5,5907
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1002
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1817
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3600
utr_p1 0,8706
utr_p2 0,9129
utr_advantage -2,3107
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23113
API ID 15327352
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23113,
    "api_id": 15327352,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Tomas Machac",
    "player2": "Tommy Paul",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-16T02:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.31,
      "p2": 1.6
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3619,
    "prob_p2": 0.6381,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6381,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 15.26,
      "utr_ranking": 56,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 15.63,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.26,
      "ranking": 56,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.63,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8705882352941177,
    "utr_p2": 0.9129411764705883,
    "utr_diff": -0.35999999999999943,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 72.0,
    "points_diff": -640,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.9604197901049503,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 17.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 58.620689655172406,
    "surface_wr_p2": 69.56521739130434,
    "utr_advantage": -2.3106546854942196,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -12,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5108256237659907,
    "rank_advantage": -14,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6428571428571429,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -10.944527736131938,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.626086956521739,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 23,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.535592203898048,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0582010582010581,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1093247588424437,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.7961019490254868,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.6631184407796127,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1724137931034483,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.988821821904454,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.014492626433483,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 5.590745207633784,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.57575757575758,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.9605697151424266,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2608695652173914,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 6.759999999999991,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1002068965517241,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18165217391304345,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.878787878787869,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}