Tomas Machac vs Tommy Paul
Adelaide | Hard | Semifinals
16 Ene 2026, 06:30
16 Ene 2026, 06:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tommy Paul
Tomas …: 36,2%
Tommy …: 63,8%
¿Por qué Tommy Paul?
UTR 15,26 vs 15,63
(-0,36)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tomas … | Tommy … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,30 | 1,62 | 43,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,76 | 1,57 | 36,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tomas …: -5,1%
Tommy …: +5,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tomas Machac
Ranking
#24
UTR Rating
15,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#56
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
17/29 = 58,6%
Tommy Paul
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
15,63 Pro
UTR Ranking
#15
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
16/23 = 69,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -14,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5108 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -640,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -12,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -10,9445 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,8788 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2609 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 58,6207 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 69,5652 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 57,5758 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66,6667 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1724 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1,5356 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,6631 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,9606 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 2,9604 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,6261 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,7961 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 72,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 18,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 6,7600 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0582 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1093 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6429 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4167 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,9888 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,0145 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 5,5907 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1002 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1817 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,3600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8706 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9129 | |
| utr_advantage | -2,3107 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23113
API ID
15327352
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Adelaide
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23113,
"api_id": 15327352,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Tomas Machac",
"player2": "Tommy Paul",
"tournament": "Adelaide",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-16T02:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.62
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.31,
"p2": 1.6
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3619,
"prob_p2": 0.6381,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6381,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 24,
"utr_singles": 15.26,
"utr_ranking": 56,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 15.63,
"utr_ranking": 15,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 69.56521739130434,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.26,
"ranking": 56,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.63,
"ranking": 15,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8705882352941177,
"utr_p2": 0.9129411764705883,
"utr_diff": -0.35999999999999943,
"rank_ratio": 0.6,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 72.0,
"points_diff": -640,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 2.9604197901049503,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 17.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 58.620689655172406,
"surface_wr_p2": 69.56521739130434,
"utr_advantage": -2.3106546854942196,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -12,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5108256237659907,
"rank_advantage": -14,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6428571428571429,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4166666666666667,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -10.944527736131938,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.626086956521739,
"p1_surface_matches": 29,
"p2_surface_matches": 23,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.535592203898048,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0582010582010581,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1093247588424437,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.7961019490254868,
"combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.6631184407796127,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1724137931034483,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.988821821904454,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.014492626433483,
"surface_rank_synergy": 5.590745207633784,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.57575757575758,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.9605697151424266,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2608695652173914,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 6.759999999999991,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1002068965517241,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18165217391304345,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.878787878787869,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}