Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ugo Humbert
Adelaide | Hard | Semifinals
16 Ene 2026, 12:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alejandro …: 63,4% Ugo …: 36,6%
¿Por qué Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?
UTR 15,62 vs 15,43 (+0,30) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alejandro … Ugo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,80 50,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,58 2,73 63,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Alejandro …: +16,0% Ugo …: -16,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ranking #14
UTR Rating 15,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #16
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 29/46 = 63,0%
Ugo Humbert
Ranking #33
UTR Rating 15,43 Pro
UTR Ranking #38
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 18/29 = 62,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 21,0000
rank_ratio 2,4000
log_rank_ratio 0,8755
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1230,0000
best_rank_diff -1,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,9745
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 1,3707
surface_matches_ratio 1,5862
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 63,0435
surface_wr_p2 62,0690
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,6061
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2609
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -13,4460
first_serve_won_diff -7,3396
second_serve_won_diff -2,3826
bp_saved_diff -0,7361
bp_converted_diff 5,1519
aces_per_match_diff -4,5307
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 72,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,4700
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9104
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7136
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6538
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4444
serve_consistency_p1 7,6471
serve_consistency_p2 4,6384
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,8532
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1094
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1417
elite_surface_amplifier 0,9745
UTR
utr_diff 0,3000
utr_p1 0,9118
utr_p2 0,8765
utr_advantage 1,9231
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23115
API ID 15327354
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Adelaide
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23115,
    "api_id": 15327354,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Alejandro Davidovich Fokina",
    "player2": "Ugo Humbert",
    "tournament": "Adelaide",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-16T08:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.02,
      "p2": 1.77
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6341,
    "prob_p2": 0.3659,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6341,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 14,
      "utr_singles": 15.62,
      "utr_ranking": 16,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.04347826086957,
      "wr_surface_wins": 29,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 33,
      "utr_singles": 15.43,
      "utr_ranking": 38,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.06896551724138,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.62,
      "ranking": 16,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.43,
      "ranking": 38,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9117647058823529,
    "utr_p2": 0.876470588235294,
    "utr_diff": 0.3000000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 2.4,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 72.0,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1230,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.7361319340329686,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -17.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 63.04347826086957,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.06896551724138,
    "utr_advantage": 1.9230769230769278,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -1,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8754687373538999,
    "rank_advantage": 21,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6538461538461539,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4444444444444444,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0.9745127436281891,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.151874062968524,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -13.446041979010495,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9104477611940298,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7135678391959799,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -4.530734632683658,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.339580209895061,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2608695652173913,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.647103601534296,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.638422029183819,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.8531554411994554,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.60606060606061,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.3826086956521806,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5862068965517242,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.469999999999985,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.9745127436281891,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10943478260869566,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14168965517241383,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 1.3707070707070679,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}