Andrea Collarini vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Semifinals
16 Ene 2026, 18:00
16 Ene 2026, 18:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Andrea …: 32,3%
Juan …: 67,7%
¿Por qué Juan Pablo Varillas?
UTR 14,26 vs 14,26
(-0,07)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Andrea … | Juan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,10 | 59,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,09 | 1,48 | 32,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Andrea …: -23,4%
Juan …: +23,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Andrea Collarini
Ranking
#233
UTR Rating
14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#253
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Clay
32/56 = 57,1%
Juan Pablo Varillas
Ranking
#244
UTR Rating
14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#255
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Clay
23/37 = 62,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 13,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0542 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0528 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 15,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -117,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -5,0193 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -4,3089 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5135 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 62,1622 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 56,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 60,9756 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 56,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -5,3497 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,6000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,2000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -7,2000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,4000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,0048 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,2760 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5263 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,7278 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,7511 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,2648 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0584 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1346 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7294 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7376 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,4917 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23119
API ID
15328000
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23119,
"api_id": 15328000,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Andrea Collarini",
"player2": "Juan Pablo Varillas",
"tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-01-16T14:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.63,
"p2": 2.19
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3233,
"prob_p2": 0.6767,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6767,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 233,
"utr_singles": 14.26,
"utr_ranking": 253,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 32,
"wr_surface_total": 56,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 244,
"utr_singles": 14.26,
"utr_ranking": 255,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.26,
"ranking": 253,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.26,
"ranking": 255,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7294117647058823,
"utr_p2": 0.7376470588235293,
"utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
"rank_ratio": 1.0541666666666667,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": 15,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -7.200000000000003,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
"surface_wr_p2": 62.16216216216216,
"utr_advantage": -0.49174569722515127,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -117,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.05275056538552896,
"rank_advantage": 13,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -5.019305019305023,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.3999999999999986,
"p1_surface_matches": 56,
"p2_surface_matches": 37,
"serve_quality_diff": -5.349652509652515,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.0048262548262548,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.600000000000001,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.727791213067228,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.751056919044764,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.2647711776107633,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.666666666666664,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.97560975609756,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.200000000000003,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.5135135135135136,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0.27599999999999625,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.058428571428571385,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1346216216216216,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.3089430894308975,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}