Andrea Collarini vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Buenos Aires, Argentina | Clay | Semifinals
16 Ene 2026, 18:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Pablo Varillas
Andrea …: 32,3% Juan …: 67,7%
¿Por qué Juan Pablo Varillas?
UTR 14,26 vs 14,26 (-0,07) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Andrea … Juan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 59,9%
IA Fair Odds 3,09 1,48 32,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Andrea …: -23,4% Juan …: +23,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Andrea Collarini
Ranking #233
UTR Rating 14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #253
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Clay 32/56 = 57,1%
Juan Pablo Varillas
Ranking #244
UTR Rating 14,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #255
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Clay 23/37 = 62,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 13,0000
rank_ratio 1,0542
log_rank_ratio 0,0528
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 15,0000
best_rank_diff -117,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -5,0193
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,3089
surface_matches_ratio 1,5135
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 57,1429
surface_wr_p2 62,1622
surface_wr_p1_stable 56,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,9756
p1_surface_matches 56,0000
p2_surface_matches 37,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,3497
first_serve_won_diff -4,6000
second_serve_won_diff 3,2000
bp_saved_diff -7,2000
bp_converted_diff -2,4000
aces_per_match_diff -2,0048
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,2760
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5263
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 10,7278
serve_consistency_p2 6,7511
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,2648
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0584
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1346
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0700
utr_p1 0,7294
utr_p2 0,7376
utr_advantage -0,4917
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23119
API ID 15328000
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Buenos Aires, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23119,
    "api_id": 15328000,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Andrea Collarini",
    "player2": "Juan Pablo Varillas",
    "tournament": "Buenos Aires, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2026-01-16T14:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.63,
      "p2": 2.19
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3233,
    "prob_p2": 0.6767,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6767,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 233,
      "utr_singles": 14.26,
      "utr_ranking": 253,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 32,
      "wr_surface_total": 56,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 244,
      "utr_singles": 14.26,
      "utr_ranking": 255,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.26,
      "ranking": 253,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.26,
      "ranking": 255,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7294117647058823,
    "utr_p2": 0.7376470588235293,
    "utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0541666666666667,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": 15,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -7.200000000000003,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 57.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.16216216216216,
    "utr_advantage": -0.49174569722515127,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -117,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.05275056538552896,
    "rank_advantage": 13,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -5.019305019305023,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.3999999999999986,
    "p1_surface_matches": 56,
    "p2_surface_matches": 37,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.349652509652515,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.0048262548262548,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.600000000000001,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.727791213067228,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.751056919044764,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.2647711776107633,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.666666666666664,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.97560975609756,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.200000000000003,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5135135135135136,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0.27599999999999625,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.058428571428571385,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1346216216216216,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.3089430894308975,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}