Alexei Popyrin vs Alexandre Muller
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 13:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexandre Muller
Alexei …: 49,1% Alexandre …: 50,9%
¿Por qué Alexandre Muller?
UTR 15,09 vs 15,12 (+0,09) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alexei … Alexandre … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,53 2,50 65,4%
Gamdom 1,40 3,15 71,4%
IA Fair Odds 2,04 1,96 49,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Alexei …: -13,0% Alexandre …: +13,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexei Popyrin
Ranking #50
UTR Rating 15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking #82
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 7/21 = 33,3%
Alexandre Muller
Ranking #52
UTR Rating 15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #76
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 11/25 = 44,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 1,0000
rank_ratio 1,0204
log_rank_ratio 0,0202
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 20,0000
best_rank_diff 19,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -10,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,7678
surface_matches_ratio 0,8400
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 44,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 36,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 44,8276
p1_surface_matches 21,0000
p2_surface_matches 25,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7000
p2_confidence 0,8333
combined_confidence 0,7667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 15,6945
first_serve_won_diff 6,2181
second_serve_won_diff -0,4486
bp_saved_diff 8,1608
bp_converted_diff -9,8632
aces_per_match_diff 6,3600
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff -22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -19,0410
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 4,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9904
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5823
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8889
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4545
serve_consistency_p1 6,9580
serve_consistency_p2 8,2017
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,2155
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1677
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0590
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0900
utr_p1 0,8541
utr_p2 0,8435
utr_advantage 0,5915
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 23126
API ID 15372351
Gamdom ID 601103
Torneo Australian Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 128
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 23126,
    "api_id": 15372351,
    "gamdom_id": 601103,
    "player1": "Alexei Popyrin",
    "player2": "Alexandre Muller",
    "tournament": "Australian Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 128",
    "date": "2026-01-19T09:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.53,
      "p2": 2.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 3.15
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.38,
      "p2": 3.03
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4906,
    "prob_p2": 0.5094,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5094,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 50,
      "utr_singles": 15.09,
      "utr_ranking": 82,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 21,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 52,
      "utr_singles": 15.12,
      "utr_ranking": 76,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 44.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.09,
      "ranking": 82,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.12,
      "ranking": 76,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8541176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.8435294117647059,
    "utr_diff": 0.08999999999999986,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0204081632653061,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": 20,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 8.160761904761891,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -22.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 44.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.5915215248110408,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 19,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.02020270731751947,
    "rank_advantage": 1,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8888888888888888,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.45454545454545453,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -10.666666666666671,
    "bp_converted_diff": -9.863238095238096,
    "p1_surface_matches": 21,
    "p2_surface_matches": 25,
    "serve_quality_diff": 15.694476190476188,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9903846153846154,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5822784810126582,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 6.359999999999999,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 6.218095238095231,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.958047453982758,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.201691841391233,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.21549554472020777,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 36.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.827586206896555,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.4485714285714124,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.84,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -19.041000000000007,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.16766666666666674,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.059,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.767816091954025,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}