Alexei Popyrin vs Alexandre Muller
Australian Open | Hard | Round of 128
19 Ene 2026, 13:05
19 Ene 2026, 13:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexandre Muller
Alexei …: 49,1%
Alexandre …: 50,9%
¿Por qué Alexandre Muller?
UTR 15,09 vs 15,12
(+0,09)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alexei … | Alexandre … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,53 | 2,50 | 65,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,40 | 3,15 | 71,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,04 | 1,96 | 49,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alexei …: -13,0%
Alexandre …: +13,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexei Popyrin
Ranking
#50
UTR Rating
15,09 Pro
UTR Ranking
#82
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
7/21 = 33,3%
Alexandre Muller
Ranking
#52
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#76
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
11/25 = 44,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0204 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0202 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 20,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 19,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -10,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,7678 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8400 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 44,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 36,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 44,8276 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 21,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 15,6945 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 6,2181 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,4486 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,1608 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -9,8632 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 6,3600 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -19,0410 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9904 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5823 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8889 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4545 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,9580 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,2017 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -0,2155 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1677 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0590 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8541 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8435 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,5915 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
23126
API ID
15372351
Gamdom ID
601103
Torneo
Australian Open
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 128
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 23126,
"api_id": 15372351,
"gamdom_id": 601103,
"player1": "Alexei Popyrin",
"player2": "Alexandre Muller",
"tournament": "Australian Open",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 128",
"date": "2026-01-19T09:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.53,
"p2": 2.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 3.15
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.38,
"p2": 3.03
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4906,
"prob_p2": 0.5094,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5094,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 50,
"utr_singles": 15.09,
"utr_ranking": 82,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 7,
"wr_surface_total": 21,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 52,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 76,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 44.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.09,
"ranking": 82,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.12,
"ranking": 76,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8541176470588235,
"utr_p2": 0.8435294117647059,
"utr_diff": 0.08999999999999986,
"rank_ratio": 1.0204081632653061,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 0.0,
"momentum_p2": 22.0,
"points_diff": 20,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.160761904761891,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": -22.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7,
"p2_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2": 44.0,
"utr_advantage": 0.5915215248110408,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 19,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.02020270731751947,
"rank_advantage": 1,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8888888888888888,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.45454545454545453,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -10.666666666666671,
"bp_converted_diff": -9.863238095238096,
"p1_surface_matches": 21,
"p2_surface_matches": 25,
"serve_quality_diff": 15.694476190476188,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9903846153846154,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5822784810126582,
"aces_per_match_diff": 6.359999999999999,
"combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 6.218095238095231,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.958047453982758,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.201691841391233,
"surface_rank_synergy": -0.21549554472020777,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 36.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.827586206896555,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.4485714285714124,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.84,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -19.041000000000007,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 5,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 4,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.16766666666666674,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.059,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.767816091954025,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}